Equity call volumes have been declining since late of January, as retail investors are focused on the economic reopening
2021-03-31
ETH vs USD
ETHEREUM HAS BEEN FORMING A BEARISH DEEP CRAB. ABOVE 1920 TH MAGNET MOVE WILL TRIGGER UNTIL THE COMPLETION OF THE PATTERN IN 2375-2425 ZONE
U CAN GET LONG ON THE BREAKOUT OF 1920 UNTIL 2375-2425 RANGE OR THIS OPPORTUNITY COULD EXTEND TO THE COMPEMENTRY TOLERNCE MEASURE(1.902XA) AT 2625
AS ASIDE NOTE: THE 1.902XA IS AN ADDITIONAL MEASUREMENT IT WORKS EXTERMERLY WELL IN EXTENSION PATTERNS LIKE CRABAND DEEP CRAB THAT EXPERIENCED STRONG PRICE ACTION AT COMPLETION POINT
2021-03-30
REAL GDP
Is the US economy on fire, as US real GDP has recovered faster than normal?
GOLD
IN THE NAME OF ALLAH THE MOST GRACIOUS THE MOST MERCIFUL
FUNDAMENTALLY, U COULD SAY THE DOLLAR AFTER SHATERED ITS KEY 93 CEILLING , RISING TREASURY YIELDS TO 1.77% OR A COMBINATION OF AN ACCELERATING VACCINE ROLLOUT PROGRAM AND THE PROSPECT OF AN ADDITIONAL $3- $4 TRILLION IN INFTASTRUCTURE SPENDING, ALL OF THESE FACTORS ARE PILLING FRESH PRESSURE ON GOLD, OKAY.... GOOD! ALL OF WHICH SOUNDS REASONABLE
"BUT TECHNICALLY DON‘T FORGET WHAT IS SO CALLED :"THE PATTERN
FROM THE ELLIOTT WAVE PRINCIPLE (EWP) PERSPECTIVE PATTERN IS A WAVE
THE PATTERN SHOULD BE COPMPLETED TO GET THE TREND TURNS
HERE! GOLD IS NOT FINISHED YET THE MINOR FOURTH WAVE WHICH IS STILL UNFOLDING IN DOUBLE ZIGZAG PATERN THAT MAY COMPLETE IN $1640-$1600 RANGE
(C OF Y WAVE OF DOUBLE ZIGZAG IS STILL IN OPERATION)
BE SURE THAT ,WHEN THE WAVE IS COMPLETE, REVERSAL WILL OCCURE
(WAVES OF INVESTORE PYSCHOLOGY DRIVE MARKET PRICES)
2021-03-29
UN WORLD FOOD PRICE INDEX
Global food prices are climbing again.
DOLLAR INDEX
DOLLAR IS FORMING A DISTINCT BEARISH ALTERNATE BAT PATTERN,PRICES SHOULD REACH AT LEAST 94.20 TO VALIDATE THIS PATTERN
THE 1.13 XA AND THE 3.14 BC PROJECTION PINPOINT THE MEDIUM TERM RESISTANCE IN 95.5-95.75 RANGE
2021-03-27
US Recession
The probability of US recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, decreased to 5.8% in March
NZD vs USD
THE NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR HAS ANCHORED ON THE INVERTED HEAD AND SHOULDERS PATTERN TO CHANGE ITS DIRECTION FROM BEARISH TO BULLISH, BUT LATELY IT SEEMS THAT THE FIRST WAVE IN THE UPTREND HAS ENDED,AND THE SELLING HEAD AND SHOULDERS APPEARED, THE PATTERN WAS A VALID ONE WHEN PARICES CLOSED BELOW 0.71 TO DOWNSIDE TARGET AT 0.67
NOTE, THE INVERTED HEAD AND SHOULDERS AND THE HEAD AND SHOULDERS ARE THE SAME AS THE PRICE MIRRORS (I DONT MEAN SIZE HERE ! BUT THE CONCEPT)
2021-03-26
RETURNS
Valuations do matter as they have an impact on return expectations
CARDANO
CARDANO HAD REACHED TO THE KEY RISISTANCE LEVEL AT $1350, THEN STARTED TO SHOW SIGNS OF FIZZLING OUT
BUT ,POSITIVE REVERSAL AS SHOWN ON RSI SUGGESTS THAT CARDANO STABILIZES AFTER SELL OFF, RESISTANCE SEEN AROUND $1000, AND MOST LIKELY CARDANO IS STILL ONGOING FORMING A TRIANGLE
2021-03-25
Earnings Sentiment
IN THE NAME OF ALLAH THE MOST GRACIOUS THE MOST MERCIFUL
Earnings sentiment remains positive
Performance
Gold and commodities tend to do well during periods of high inflation
2021-03-24
EGX 70 EWI
,WE HAVE MORE THAN ARGUMENT THAT THE EGX 70 EWI HAS COMPLETED THE FIVE WAVES UP RALLY, AND CORRECTION HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE
FROM EWP PERSPECTIVE, THE LAST WAVE WAS UNABLE TO REACH THE UPPER TRENDLINE OF THE UP CHANNEL,(THE FIFTH WAVE) , A DECISIVE BREAK IN THE RISING CHANNEL , AND THE IMPULSIVE NATURE OF THE DECLINE SUGGEST THAT A MAJOR TOP IS IN PLACE , FINALLY THE CLASSIC NEGATIVE DIVERGENCE ON THE MACD CONFIRMED THIS COUNT A LONG THE WAY ( DIVERGENCE OFTEN OCCURES BETWEEN THE THIRD AND THE FIFTH WAVE IN ACTIONARY WAVES)
SO ,MORE LIKELY EGX 70 EWI IS CORRECTING WAVE 2, THAT MAY TAKE PRICES INTO DEEP CORRECTION THAT TEND TO MORE OFTEN TO RETRACE 50% OR 61.8% OF THE REVIOUS WAVE (FROM MARCH LOWS TO RECENT HIGH AT 2472)
I DO THINK IN THE COMING DAYS , EGX70 WILL PULLBAC(PROBABLY AFTER PRICE TOUCH 1760) IN A CORRECTIVE MOVE TO HIT 2000-2250 RANGE, BEFORE RESUMING THE DOWNTREND TO REACH THE 1450-1650 ZONE
Buybacks
Buybacks are on the rise again and that's good news for stocks
AUD vs USD
THERE IS NO A BIG DIFFERENCE BTWEEN THE HEAD AND SHOULDERS WITH HORISONTAL NEIKLINE OR HEAD AND SHOULDERS WITH UP SLOPING NEIKLINE,BUT NOTICE IN BOTH ,THE FIRST DOWNSIDE HURDLE TO CROSS IS THE 0.7565
IN THAT CASE PRICE COULD HIT $0.72-$0.71
2021-03-23
S&P 500
Can the S&P 500 continue to outperform global equity markets over the next 10 years?
S&P 500 EPS
A full implementation of the Biden tax plan would reduce S&P 500 EPS by 9%
FACEBOOK SHARES
FACEBOOK SHARES ARE STILL ONGOING TO FORM THE MINUTE FIFTH WAVE, WHICH IS PROJECTED TO REACH ABOUT $310-$315 RANGE
2021-03-22
Markets
Is the disconnect between the US stock market and the US economy justified?
US Government Bonds
With low interest rates and inflation on the horizon, is Warren Buffett right to be bearish on bonds?
2021-03-20
US DOLLAR
؟ WILL THE US DOLLAR SHORT COVERING LAST FOR SOME TIME
THE US BUDGET DEFICIT
THE US FEDRAL GOVERNMENT‘S BUDGET DEFICIT IS SKYROCKTING, THIS IS NOT A CAUSE FOR PANIC YET
HISTORY OF THE 10 YEAR TREASURY
HISTORY OF THE 10 YEAR TREASURY
2021-03-19
DISTRIBUTION OF BITCOIN
IS EVERYONE GETTING REICH WITH BITCOIN ! THE TOP 2.4% OF ADDRESSES WITH THE LARGEST BALANCES OWN 95% OF TOTAL BITCOIN
CRUDE OIL
A DECISIVE BREAK IN THE UPTREND LINE , AND THE IMPULSIVE NATURE OF THE DECLINE SUGGEST THAT A MAJOR TOP IS IN PLACE
IF MY COUNT IS CORRECT, 2ND WAVE OFTEN RETRACE ABOUT 50%-62% OF WAVE ONE
SO THE TRENDLINE MIRRORS( AFTER TRENDLINE IS BROKEN, PRICES WILL USUALL MOVE A DISTANCE BEYOND THE TRENDLINE EQUAL TO THE VERTICAL DISTANCE THAT PRICES A CHIEVED ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE LINE) GIVE US A DOWNWARD TARGET AT $51.5 THAT‘S CORRESPONDING WITH ROUGHLY 50% OF WAVE ONE (PRIOR UPTREND)
NOTE THE PULLBACK ON THE BROKEN TRENDLINE IS WAVE FOUR
2021-03-18
FED FUNDS RATE
MARKTES ARE PRICING ALMOST 3 RATE HIKES FROM THE FED BY THE END OF 2023
US GROWTH EXPECTATIONS vs USD STRENGTHENS
SHORT DOLLAR BETS COULD END UP BEING COSTLY AS THE US STIMULUS DRIVEN ECONOMY OUTPERFORMS
2021-03-17
GOLD vs US 10-YEAR REAL RATES
GENERALLY, WHEN US10-YEAR REAL RATES GO UP, GOLD TENDS TO GO DOWN
HOUSING IS UNDERSUPPLIED
NEW HOUSING UNITS ARE MASSIVELY UNDERSUPPLIED. THE US WILLINCREASINGLY FACE HOUSING SHORTAGES IN THE YRAES AHEAD
ENERGY SECTOR
ENERGYSECTOR HAS FORMED AN UGLY DOUBLE BOTTOMM WHEN PARISES CLOSED ABOVE 46.75 IT CONFIRMS THE PATTERN AS BEING VALID , SEKTOR HAS BEEN WORKING WELL SINCE OCT 2020 SO FAR ,SO IT HAS POTENTIAL TO HIT 68 AFTER SHORT CORRECTION
2021-03-16
STOCKS
NEW 52 WEEK HIGHS CONTINUE TO EXPAND, WHICH IS BULLISH FOR US STOCKS
2021-03-15
30- YEAR BOND
WILL 30-YEAR BOND YIELDS CONTINUE TO RISE
BTC vs USD
A DISTINCT CRAB SELL PATTER ON THE CHART,THE COMPLETION POINT OF THE PATTERN AT 67500
TO TRADE WITH BETOIN ABOVE 52500 BAAM WAS BOR
GET LONG ABOVE 52500 UNTIL THE PATTERN ‘S COPMLETION AT 67.500
2021-03-13
TECH FLOWS
INVESTORS‘LOVE OF TECH SHARES DRIVE BOOMING MARKET RALLY
RUSSELL 2000
SMALL CAPS THAT ARE INCLUDED IN THE RUSSELL 2000 INDEX HAVE RISEN 54% SINCE NOV2020 LOWS -TO HIGHEST HIGH ,WHILE THE BIG CAPS IN S&P 500 , NDX100 GAINED 22.5% AND 25.2% RESPECTIVELY
NOTE THE HIDDEN DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THE LAST 3 RISING VALLEYS AND THE RSI INDICATOR
2021-03-12
THE 10yr- 5yr SPREAD
THE US INFLATION ECPECTATIONS CURVE IS BECOMING MORE INVERTED.
HERE IS THE 10yr- 5yr BREAEVEN SPREAD
SILVER UPDATE
IF SILVER DECISIVELY BREAK DOWN THE UPTREND, ,WE COULD SEE PRICES DROP DOWN TO TOUCH THE KEY LEVELS $24 THEN 22 AND OPEN THE DOOR TO AN EXTENSION OF DOWNSIDE TOWARDS THE COMPLETION OF A POSSIBLE DOUBLE TOP PATTERN BY CLOSING BELOW 22
2021-03-11
SPREAD BETWEEN US AND GERMAN BOND YIELDS WIDENED
IN THE NAME OF ALLAH THE MOST GRACIOUS THE MOST MERCIFUL
SPREAD BTWEEN US AND GERMAN BOND YIELDS WIDENED
ON ONE HAND SEARCH ABOUT STIMULUS PACKAGES WHICH LED TO INCREASE THE SUPPLY OF BOND,THUS INCREASE IN THEIR YIELDS
ON TH OTHER HAND GERMANY‘S BOND WHERE THE SUPPLY HAS BEEN LOW IN RECENT YEARS OF BUDGET SURPLUS ALONGSIDE BUYING BY THE ECB FOR QUANTITATIVE EASING MEANS THERE ARE LONG TERM STRUCTURAL FACTORS PUSHING YIELDS LOWER
TESLA STOCK
THE DECLINE FROM $900 TO $538 IN IMPLUSIVE MANNER PROVES THAT THE PEAK IS IN PLACE, AND THE FIREST LEG OF CORRECTION ALSO HAS COMPLETED IN TESLA. THE REBOUND SHOULD BE IN THREE MOVES AND MOSTLY WILL HIT $760(61.8% OF A) AS A COMMON RETRACEMENT , MOST OF THE TIME WAVE B RETRACES 38.2%-78.6% OF WAVE A, IT DEPENDS UPON THE STRUCTURE OF WAVE B( IF WAVE B IS ITSELF A ZIGZAG IT RETRACES 50% -78.6% OR IF IT IS A TRIANGLE IT RETRACES 38.2% -50%, HOWEVER AS I SAID BEFORE THE LEVEL OF 500 SHOULD BE BROKEN
NOTE: $360,$410, $435 ARE THE MOST LIKELY NUMBERS COULD TESLA REACH TO ONE OF THEM IN CASE OF WAVE C= WAVE A (THE MOST COMMON FIBONACCI RELATIONSHIP IN SINGLE ZIGZAG) EQUILTY IN LENGTH
ALSO NOTE THE PRIMARY GUIDELINE ACCORDING TO ELLIOTT WAVE THEORY WHEN CORRECTION IS ITSELF FOURTH WAVE IT WOULD REACH THE ZONE OF WAVE FOUR WITHIN WAVE THREE (LOOK AT THE TRIANGLE THAT I POINTED OUT IT , THAT IS THE SUPPORT AREA WHERE CORRECTION MAY END THERE
2021-03-10
VALUE vs GROWTH
THE 10 YEAR ANNUALIZED FOR VALUE VS GROWTH STOCKS REMAINS DEEPLY NEGATIVE DESPITE THE RECENT STRENGTH IN VALUE STOCKS
BTC vs USD
BITCOIN SINCE LOW OF $43400 HAS BEEN RISING QUIETLY AND WITOUT ATTRACTING MEDIA ATTENTION, I THINK MAY BITCOIN‘S VOLATILITY BE STARTED TO EBB
BUT SO FAR BITCOIN IS PROGRESSING IN A CORRECTIVE RALLY(3 MOVES UP), WHICH MAKES ME DOUBT THAT WE‘RE FORMING A TRIANGLE OR SO AND THE FOURTH WAVE STILL ONGOING, INVERTED HEAD AND SHOULDESRS IN THAT CASE IS NOT ENOUGH
WE NEED IMPULSIVE MOVE TO THE UPSIDE TO SAY THE BOTTOM IS IN PLACE
IF PRICES BREAK DOWN $43400 THE SCOND LEG OF GRRECTION MAY HAVE BOTTOED IN
$42000- $29000 ZONE
THE NEXT UPSIDE TARGET AT $57000 AS LONG AS $43400 IS NOT BROKEN
2021-03-09
SENTIMENT
THE EQUITY RISK INDICATOR FROM MORGAN STANLELY REMAINS IN POSITIVE TERRITORY
EARNINGS GROWTH IN Q2
EARNINGS GROWTH SET AT PEAK LATE Q2
THE TRENDS IN THE THREE KEY US INDICES
THE TRENDS IN THE THREE MAIN US STOCK INDEXES HAVE DIVERGED IN LAST 3 WEEKS, THE DJIA IS AT NEW HIGHS,ON THE CONTRARY S&P 500 AND NDX100 HAVE BEEN DECLINING SINCE A BOUT MID- FEBRUARY
IN SUCH CASES, TRENDS MAY NOT BE HEALTHY IN BULL MARKET AND SUGGEST A NARROWING OF THE ADVANCE
BE ALRET
2021-03-08
GAP BETWEEN GDP DROWTH & YIELDS
EVEN WITH THE RECENT SPIKE THAT SAW THE 10-YEAR RATE TOP 1.6% TREASURY YIELDS HAVN‘T BEEN THIS LOW RELATIVE TO US ECONOMYIC GROWTH ESTIMATES SINCE 1966 THAT SUGGESTS THE CLIMB IN RATES MAY HAVE ROOM TO RUN
EUR/USD
IN RECENT HISTORY, THE EUR/USD TENDS TO DROP ON AVERAGE AFTER US PRESIDENTIAL INAUGURATIONS
DOLLAR INDEX
US DOLLAR AFTER FORMED A VALID CONTINUATION HEAD AND SHOULDER, FAILED TO CONTINUE LOWER DRIVERN BY INCREASING IN US 10y TREASURY YIELDS THEN FOUND FOOTING AT 89.70 AND MADE ITS WAY HIGHER TO 92.5 (H&S FAILURE PRICE TARGET) OR MORE
2021-03-06
HOUSEHOLD EXCESS LIQUIDITY REMAINS STRONG
HOUSEHOLD EXCESS LIQUIDITY REMAINS STRONG . IS IT A CONTRARIAN BULLISH SIGNAL FOR STOCK
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