Central banks really don’t have to do much right now. But they might be too stupid to know that. Probably are. Often are. Too often like kids in the amusement park driving bumper cars
2022-06-30
NDR CYCLE COMPOSITE
The NDR Cycle Composite takes 3 historical cycles (the 1-year seasonal, the 4-year Presidential, and 10-year decennial cycles)
It has been almost perfect in 2022, and why many strategist still hold fast to a 2nd half rally
2022-06-29
كل عام وانتم بخير (العشر من ذى الحجه)
كل عام وانتم بخير
اذكر نفسى واذكركم بايام العشر من ذى الحجه التى تبدء غدا يوم 30/6/2022 وهى ايام مباركات اقسم الله بها فى قرأنه الكريم لفضل وعظم هذه الايام ويستحب فى هذه الايام عمل ما تسيطع ان تفعله من خيرات سواء الحج لمن يمتلك المقدره الماديه والصحيه ، صيام الايام العشر ، صدقه ، قراءه القرأن ، ذكر الله دائما طوال اليوم والليله،قيام الليل والتكبير والتسبيح والتهليل ،صله الرحم والمحافظه على النوافل بعد الصلوات المكتوبه وتجنب المنكرات والفواحش واجعل دائما لسانك رطبا بذكر الله ولاتنس يوم عرفه ذلك اليوم من اعظم ايام الله على المسلمين فادعوا فيه ما استطعت من دعاء ولا تنس فيه اخوانك من المسلمين بالدعاء لهم والدعاء بنصر الاسلام على من يحاربه داخليا وخارجيا
الله اكبر الله اكبر الله اكبر ولله الحمد ،
الله اكبر الله اكبر لا اله الا الله ، (الله اكبر كبيرا والحمدلله كثيرا وسبحان الله بكره واصيلا ) تفتح ابواب السماء فلا تتركوها ابدا
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
IN THE NAME OF ALLAH THE MOST GRACIOUS THE MOST MERCIFUL
Consumer Confidence & Gasoline Prices
S&P 500 DIVIDEND YIELD
IN THE NAME OF ALLAH THE MOST GRACIOUS THE MOST MERCIFUL
Tighter financial conditions require higher compensation for investors to take on risk. The S&P 500 dividend yield is roughly 40 bps too low. Since companies are not about to boost dividends in this environment, stock prices need to be substantially lower
2022-06-28
USD vs CHF
AFTER SWISS FRANC COMPLETED THE UPSIDE TARGET OF A SYSMETRICAL TRIANGLE AT 1.0065, IT IS FORMING A DOUBLE TOP PATTERN AND IF THE PRICE BREAKOUT BELOW 0.9545 THE FORMATION IS BIENG A VALID ONE AND HAS A POTENTIAL DOWN SIDE TARGET AT 0.9025
BUT WITHOUT BREAKOUT 0.9545 TRADING REMAINS IN A SIDEWAYS RANGE BETWEEN 0.9545 AND 1.0065
US 10yr YIELD
What will the US 10-year Treasury yield be at the end of the year?
2022-06-27
ISM MANUFACTURING
The sharp fall in the Dallas Fed survey in June suggests the ISM manufacturing index will weaken further in the coming months, further raising recession risks
ARKK ETF
ARK INOVATION FUND MAY HAVE FINISHED CORRECTION AS WAVE TWO AT 35
IF MY OUTLOOK IS CORRECT I FORECAST A SWING HIGH VERY SHARP MAKE A NEW ALL TIME HIGH ABOVE 153
INVALIDATION LEVEL BELOW $33
ACCORDING TO A REPORT BY BLOOBERG ON MONDY ,ARK FUND HAS GANED IT LONGEST STREAK OF INFLOWS IN MORE THAN A YEAR
INVESTORS HAVE PUT $639 MILLION THE ARK INNOVATION ETF FOR EIGHT DAYS STRIGHT, THE LAST TIME CASH POUED IN AT A SIMILAR RATE WAS BACK IN MARCH 2021
I DO THINK THIS NEWS BOOST MY BULLISH VIEW
2022-06-24
COPPER PRICE
Copper below $4 per pound, down over 24% from the highs (bear market), and down to a 16-month low tells me that “recession” risks have overtaken “inflation” risks
INFLATION
Did you catch this tidbit from Powell’s testimony yesterday?
Even if inflation stays high as unemployment rises, Powell warned, “I think we’d be reluctant to cut.”
2022-06-23
EARNINGS
Historically, Fed rate hikes tend to negatively affect S&P 500 earnings
GBP vs USD
STERLING HAS FORMED A GRAND HEAD AND SHOULDERS COMPLEX TOPS WHEN PRICE CLOSES BELOW THE NICKLINE AT 1.3250, DOWNWARD BREAK OCCURS AND CONFIRMS THE CHART ATTERN AS BEING A VALID ONE TO DOWNSIDE TARGET ROUGHLY AT 1.1850
2022-06-22
HISTORY OF ASSET BUBBLES
Human nature does not change, only the bubbles change
SILVER
SILVER HAS FORMED A DESCENDING TRIANGLE , WE WAIT FOR BREAKOUT IN ANY DIRECTION BECAUSE THE RANDOM RESULTES FOR BREAKOUT DIRECTION
2022-06-21
US EXISTING HOMES SALES PRICE
The median sales price of an existing home in the US has moved above $400,000 for the first time, up 44% over the last 2 years.
ETH vs USD
ETHEREUM ON THE WEEKLY RANGE SHOWS THAT THE LAST CORRECTIONIS HAS ENDED AT 880,WE HAVE A GLUES FOR THAT
SUCH PRICE HAS REACHED TO THE BOTTOM OF THE DESCENDING CHANNEL, THERE IS A BULLISH DIVERGENCE BETWEEN WAVE (A) AND WAVE (C) AND FINALLY CORRECTION HIT THE 0.78 FIBONACCI RETERACEMENT, WHICH IS MORE THAN USUAL FOR THE SECOND WAVE IN CORRECTION(USUALLY WAVE 2 RETRACE 61.8% OF THE PREVIOUS WAVE)
CLOSE ABOVE 2000 BOLSTERS THIS PERSPECTIVE
2022-06-20
ON GOOGLE CHART THE UPTREND LEAD TO THE RIGHT ANGLED AND DESCENDING BROADENING FORMATION, PARTIAL RISE SIGNLS AN IMPENDING DOWNWARD BREAKOUT, AND AFTER THE BREAKOUT OCCURED AT 2500 PRICE MAKES A STRONG MOVE DOWNWARD TO PRICE TARGET AT 2000
BUT DO U THINK DECLINE GONNA STOP HERE?
I PERSONALLY DON‘T THINK SO
USD vs RUB
RUSSIAN RUBLE IS TRADING NOW AT 55 ,THIS IS THE HIGHEST HIGH SINCE 2018 AND BOUNCED FROM THE LOWEST LOW AT ROUGHLY 140 AFTER UKRAINE INVASION
ACCORDING TO THE AVAILABLE DATA I DO THINK THE FIVE WAVES UP ARE COMPLETE AS WAVE ONE ,THEN A THREE WAVE CORRECTION SHOULD FOLLOW AS EWP THEORY SAYS
I THINK THE FIRST LEG OF COORECTION COULD END AT 54 OR MAY HAVE EXTENDED TO 50 THEN PRICE SNAPBACK TO RANGE OF 80-90 THEN THE FINAL LEG OF CORRECTION MIGHT HAVE TAKEN PRICE DOWN IN RANGE 15-30
THIS SCENARIO INVALIDATION IF PRICE CLOSES ABOVE 140
2022-06-18
S&P 500 vs RUSSELL 2000
LOOK AT DOW THEORY , THE FOURTH PRINCIPLE
"AVERAGES MUSTCONFIRM EACH OTHER"
HERE THE RUSSELL 2000 COULD NOT CONFIRM RISE OF S&P 500, WE HAVE A BEARISH NON CONFIRMATION, SO THE VALIDITY OF THE UPTREND CAME INTO QUESTION
ON 19 JAN RUSSELL 2000 MAKE A NEW REACTION LOW TWO DAYS LATER S&P 500 RECORDED A NEW REACTION LOW AND CONFIRMED A CHANGE OF PRIMARY TREND FROM BULLISH TO BEARISH ( WHEN PRICE CLOSED BELOW 4500)
DJIA vs US 10yr YIELD
THE CHART ABOVE SHOWS THE RELATTION BETWEEN US MAJOR INDICES AND THE YIELD ON THE BENCHMARK 10y TREASURY NOTE
I ALWAYS SAY LOOK FOR PATTERN COMPLETION TO KNOW WHEN MAJOR TREND REVERSAL OCCUR, THE PATTERN HERE WHICH I MEAN IS ELLIOTT WAVE COMPLETION
WHEN U LOOK AT THE CHART DID U NOTICE THAT THE CORRECTION IN US STOCK MARKETS HAS BEEN STARTING AS EARLY AS 2022, BEFORE TALKING SERIOUSELY ABOUT HIKE INTERST RATES OR FEARS OF INFLATION, IN LATE OF 2021 THERE WAS A GLOBAL SURVEY ABOUT BIGGEST TAIL RISKS FOR MARKET IN 2022 AND INFLATION FEARS WAS ON THE TOP OF LIST , DESPITE THAT US STOCK MARKETS RALLIED, ALTHOUGH THEY WERE A FROTHY EQUITY MARKET, AS BEFORE US STOCK MARKETS WERE RISING DESPITE COVID FEARS AND EMERGENCE OF NEW VARIANTS
THEREFORE IN UPTREND AND POSITIVE MOOD ANY NEGATIVE NEWS OR CONCERNS ARE IGNORED
FUNDAMENTALS ANALYSIS HAS NO ANSWER FOR SUCH THINGS, AS THERE HAVE NEVER BEEN ANSWERS BEFORE AS TO WHY STOCK MARKETS HAVE REBOUNDED FROM THEIR LOWS, WHETHER IN COVID CRISIS OR 2008 CRASH DESPITE THE DETERIORATION OF FUNDAMENTALS ON A MACROECONOMIC OR MICROECONOMIC
HOWEVER, SINCE PANDAMIC LOW US MAJOR INDICES WERE IN A POSITIVE CORRELATION WITH US10yr YIELD, BUT IN EARLY 2022 AFTER THE US MAJOR INDICES COMPLETED THE FIVE WAVES UP AND CORRECTION HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE, RELATION BETWEEN THEM WERE BIENG STRONGLY AND INVERSALY CORRELATED, THIS CONCIDED WITH THE YIELD ON US 10yr WAS CLOSE TO THE PSYCHOLOGICAL LEVEL AT 2% ,DESPITE THE AMERCAN INDICES WERE RISING BEFORE IN LATE 2018 WITH THE YIELD ON 10yr TREASURY NOTE HIT KEY PSYCHOLOGICAL LEVEL OF 3%
2022-06-17
S&P 500
THE CALCULATED DOWNSIDE TARGET OF THE COMPLEX HEAD AND SHOULDERS TOP PATTERN IS ALMOST AT 3400, BUT ACCORDING TO (EWP) IT IS LIKELY THAT LEVEL IS DARD TO STOP THE STEEP SELL-OFF, WE HAVE A CLUES THAT THE DECLINE STILL HAS MUCH TO GO DOWN , THE VERTICAL DECLINE AND THE ACCELERATION GAP TELL US THAT THE THIRD WAVE OF WAVE( C) IS UNDERWAY(THESE CLUES ARE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE THIRD WAVE) AND COULD COMPLETE AT LEAST AT 2900, THEN PULLBACK TO UPSIDE ROUGHLY TO 3400 TNEN ONE MORE PUSH DOWN IN RANGE OF 2700-2800 TO END THE CORRECTION( INTERMEDIATE WAVE TWO OF PRIMARY FIFTH WAVE)
THIS IS WHAT I ANTICIPATE AS A PRIMARY SCENARIO IN (EWP)
THIS SCENARIO IS NEGATED WHEN PRICE CLOSES BELOW 2200 (MARCH 2020 LOW)
NOTES
REMMBER, ALL THESE NOTES FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSE ONLY, SO U CAN IGNORE THEM IF U LIKE
- THE CLEAN FIVE WAVES DOWN SUGGEST THAT THE UPTREND MAY HAVE CHANGED
IN CLASSICAL ANALYSIS CLOSE BELOW 4100 UPTREND CHANGED IN MEDIUM TERM THIS BOLSTERS THE EWP VIEW,
- S&P 500 TUMBLES INTO BEAR MARKET BELOW 3850 (THE INDEX HAS NOW FALLEN MORE THAN 22% FROM ITS RECORD HIGH AT 4818 MEETING THE TECHNICAL DEFINITION OF A BEAR MARKET)
- THE NEXT SOLID SUPPORT IS THE 3500-3600 RANGE, IF U DIDN‘T CUT UR LOSS AT 4500 OR 4100
- WE USE 4100(LOWEST TROUGH PRICE) AS THE BREAKOUT POINT IN HEAD AND SHOULDERS PATTERN INSTEAD OF A STEEP OR DOWN SLOPING NECKLINE, BEAR IN MIND THE MEASURE RULE IN THAT CASE AS IT IN ANORMAL MANNER,ONLY THE DIFFERENCE, THAT SUBTRACT THE RESULT FROM THE LOWEST TROUGH (4100 HERE) AS A NEW DOWNWARD BREAKOUT AND IT ALSO CONFIRMS THE CHART PATTERN AS BEING A VALID HEAD AND SHOULDERS, BUT IF UR A SLIGHTLY MORE CONSERVATIVE, COMPUTE THE FORMATION HEIGHT FROM THE HIGHEST HIGH TO THE HIGHER OF THE NECLINE TROUGHS(4279 HERE) THEN SUTRACT THE RESULT FROM THE HIGHER OF THE NECKLINE TROUGHS AND THE RESULT IS THE TARGET PRICE, SO IN THAT CASE THE NEW DOWWARD TRAGET IS AROUND 3600
2022-06-16
2022-06-15
BTC vs USD
IT LOOKS LIKE THAT BITCOIN STILL HAS AWAY TO GO DOWN, ESPECIALLY THE VERTICAL DECLINE USUALLY TELL US THAT THE THIRD WAVE IN PLAY, SO AFTER THE THIRD WAVE IS COMPLETE WE WILL SEE A PULLBACK TO UPSIDE THEN ONE MORE PUSH DOWN AGAIN TO HIT 12000
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