Morgan Stanley still expects S&P 500 earnings per share of $227 in 2022 and $245 in 2023
2022-04-30
REAL YIELDS
Real yields have taken a breather in recent weeks, but there is still some way to go before they return to pre-pandemic levels
GOLD vs MSCI INDEX
Accumulation vs. Distribution
CURRENCIES
Currency debasement is not a social policy.
SENTIMENT
The Fear & Greed Index stands at 27, signaling fear in the US stock market
2022-04-29
THE US TRADE DEFICIT
he US trade deficit in goods hit a new record as imports sharply outpace exports. This result didn't bode well for the GDP report today.
RATES
Could the Fed's rate hikes lead to a federal debt crisis?
RECESSION
The probability of US recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, decreased to 2.7% in April
2022-04-28
ARK INVEST
Ark Invest purchased more than 140,000 shares of OC this week... they are tripping over themselves to catch a falling knife. Why? Teladoc is down 44% today...
US GDP
Well that didn't go to plan! US GDP drops by 1.4% annualized in Q1. It was largely because of a surge in imports, which could be interpreted as a positive thing in terms of the impact on goods availability
DOLLAR INDEX
DOLLAR HITS FIVE YEAR HIGH
IF WE CONSIDER THE CHART PATTERN IS A LONG RECTANGLE , WE EXPECT UPWARD BREAKOUT TO HIT UPSIDE TARGET AT 117
NOTICE UPWARD BREAKOUT 63% OF THE TIME
2022-04-27
S&P 500 PUT CALL RATIO
10-Day MA Put/Call Ratio at its highest level since 2020 lows
EMERING MARKETS
emergingmarkets --- MSCI EM - multi-condition
2022-04-26
ENERGY SECTOR
The energy sector has enjoyed a heck of a run. But resistance is a real thing in the financial markets. Not ready to throw in the towel, but it may take a while to stage another assault on $78-$82 range
COMMODITY vs STOCKS
Commodity prices are still near the lows relative to stocks
NASDAQ 100
NDX Nadsaq -- Close (maybe) below 2-year moving average .... let's hope it's not 2000 or 200
2022-04-25
FED RATE HIKE
Will the Fed raise its benchmark rate by 75 bps in May?
RETURNS
Historically, lengthening one's time horizon has been one approach to reducing losses
2022-04-23
FAANG
Is FAANG still a thing?
Out of the 5 stocks in the group, only Apple is outperforming the market YTD
RUSSIAN EXPORTS
RUSSIAN CRUDE OIL EXPORTS TO EUROPE IN GOOD SHAPE DESPITE SANCTIONS AND EU DECLARED INTENTIONS TO CUT THEM OFF
EQUITY FUND FLOW
U.S. equity funds have recorded $30 billion of outflows over past two weeks, the largest since March 2020 market crash -Deutsche Bank
2022-04-22
INFLATION
In the US, goods inflation is expected to moderate moving forward, even as services CPI continues to climb
VIX RATIO
The ratio of VIX (equity vol) to MOVE (Treasury market vol) is near extreme lows amid the unprecedented bond market selloff. Has the ratio bottomed?
US 2y YIELD
U.S. 2-year yields rise by 260 basis points
2022-04-21
HOUSING PRICE
IN THE NAME OF ALLAH THE MOST GRACIOUS THE MOST MERCIFUL
Historically, a decline in residential real estate has led several recessions
P/E RATIO FOR EQUITIES
The P/E ratio for equities is near 20x, but it's hard to see it staying that high. This chart shows “P/E bands” based on historical and expected earnings. At a 20x multiple and 10% expected EPS growth, the S&P 500 is worth around 5000. At 18x it’s 4500, and at 16x it’s 4000.
TWITTER STILL IN DOWNTREND IN THE SHORTTERM, FIRST STEP TO CHANGE DIRECTION THAT IS BREACHING THE DOWNSLOPE CHANNEL , THEN CLOSES ABOVE THE OLD PEAK AT $81
BUT THE BIGGEST QUESTION TO MUSK‘S FANS...... WHY HE DIDNT USE HIS MAGICAL TWEETS TO SAVE THE TWITTER STOCK FROM THE BEAR MARKET? AS HE‘S A MAN OF MIRACLES MANUIPULATING THE MARKETS AS MANY DEDICATED MEMBERS OF ELON 💪CLAIM
OR SOME SAY WHEN IT COMES TO MUSK MARKETS ARE RARELY RATIONAL
😀IT‘S A JOKE
2022-04-20
BITCOIN
Bitcoin, boring? Gasp! But boring is good if you want institutional adoption.
MICROSFT
BE CAUTIOUS IF THE HEAD AND SHOULDERS COMPLETED
MAYBE IN THAT CASE WE SEE DOWN TARGET NEAR $200
2022-04-19
MORTAGE RATES
Mortgage rates hit a multi-year high on Monday, exceeding the 2018 peak.
DOLLAR
Historically, there is an inverse relationship between commodity prices and the US dollar
2022-04-18
XLK
Bulls are hoping this is a failed top and not a head & shoulders reversal for big-cap tech
BITCOIN
Investors continue to put their money into Bitcoin funds
GOLD
The gold chart is starting to look very interesting
2022-04-16
WAGES GROWTH
US. Wages rising "too fast"? Real wage growth is negative, both median and average.
Inflation is eroding wages and savings
INSIDERS
The Insider Transactions Ratio remains in the bullish zone
2022-04-15
BIGGEST TAIL RISK
IN THE NAME OF ALLAH THE MOST GRACIOUS THE MOST MERCIFUL
FMS investors see a global recession as the biggest "tail risk"
PRUDUCER PRICE INDEX
The US producer price index for semi-trailer trucks:
TESLA
TESLA FORMED A DISTINICT ALTERNATIVE BEARISH BAT COMPLETED AT $1152 THEN REVERSED DIRECTLY TO DWNSIDE ACHIVING THE FIRST DOWNWARD OBJECTIVE AT 0.38% OF AD AT $974.64,AND ITS MORE LIKELY SEE BOUNCE TO $1050 OR $1080 THEN CONTINUEING TO ACHEIVE THE SECOND OBJECTIVE AT 0.618 OF AD AT AROUND $865
TESLA RESUME THE UPTREND WHEN BREAKOUT THE MEDIUM DOWNTREND AT ROUGHLY $1140
2022-04-14
BITCOIN
Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index is 28 — Fear
Current price: $41,225
BRENT OIL
The recent oil shock almost as bad as any seen historically. Is the worst behind us?
EQUITIES
Leveraged funds and asset managers remain net long on equities
2022-04-13
INFLATION EXPECTATION
This chart has perhaps become the most important chart of the current macro moment.
GOLD&BITCOIN
Flows into gold ETF holdings and Bitcoin funds are rising
REAL EARNINGS
inflation-adjusted weekly earnings just crashed the most on record. US purchasing power is collapsing at the fastest pace in recent history
2022-04-12
GOLD
Gold is starting to move here relative to alternative asset classes
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