IN THE NAME OF ALLAH THE MOST GRACIOUS THE MOST MERCIFUL
THE MARKET NOW EXPECTS A STIMULUS DRIVEN SPIKE IN IN FLATION IN THE NEAR TREM BUT SEES PRICE GAINS MODERATING OVER THE LONG RUN
(HERE IS THE INFLATION SWAP CURVE(INVERTED
2021-02-27
US HOME PRICES
THE GAP BETWEEN WAGE GROWTH AND HOUSE PRICES IS WIDENING
TODAY HOUSE ARE TOO EXPENSIVE FOR MOST YOUNG PEOPLE
TESLA UPDATE
BELIEVE IT OR NOT ! TESLA SHARES COULD HIT $480 (40 WEEK SMA) . ALSO ACCORDING TO EWP THE PRIMARY GUIDELINE IS THAT COORECTIONS, ESPECIALLY WHEN THEY THEMSELEVS ARE FOURTH WAVES WOULD REACH INTO THE ZONE OF WAVE FOUR WITHIN WAVE THREE. SO WE FORECAST THE LEVEL OF $500 SHOULD BE TESTED AND THE RANGE OF $380-- $500 IS A GOOD PLACE FOR TESLA TO FIND SUPPORT BEFORE THE UPTREND MOVES ON
DO NOT BE SURPRISED ! AS U CAN SEE, THE THREE BEARISH CANDLES AND THE MACD INDICATOR TELL US, THE BEARS HAVE THEIR CHANCE TO RUN WITH THE BALL
2021-02-26
WHAT BUBBLE ?
ARE US EQUITIES A LONG WAY A WAY FROM BEING IN BUBBLE TERRITORY, AS INFLOWS SINCE 2009 HAVE GON INTO BONDS, NOT EQUITIES ?
THE US 10yr TREASURY YIELD vs THE S&P 500‘S DIVIDEND YIELD
THE US 10yr TREASURY YIELD IS NOW ABOVE THE S&P 500‘S DIVIDEND YIELD
DOW JONES UPDATE
THE MEDIUM UPTREND AND THE 50 DAY MOVING AVERAGE HAVE CREATED A STRONG SUPPORT ZONE ( 30850 TO 31000) THAT IS STILL WORKING WELL SO FAR
A SIDE NOTE:- BEARISH CONFIRMATION OF THE TRENDLINE DOES NOT COME UNTIL THE TRENDLINE IS BROKEN IN A CONVINCING FASHION, IT IS SOM TIMES PRUDENT TO WAIT FOR A BREAK OF THE PREVIOUS REACTION LOW(SUPPORT BREAK) AS ADDITIONAL FILTER TO AVOID FALSE BREAK
PLACE UR STOP BELOW 30000
2021-02-25
HOUSING BUBBLE
IN THE NAME OF ALLAH THE MOST GRACIOUS THE MOST MERCIFUL
ARE AMERCANS TRAPPED IN ANOTHER HOUSING BUBBLE ?
EUR vs USD
AS SHOWN ABOVE, THE CONSOLIDATION HEAD AND SHOULDERS BOTTOM USUALLY APPEARS AS PART OF CORRECTION DURING THE UPTREND,HOWEVER THE UPTREND RESUMED WITH THE CLOSE ABOVE NECKLINE AT 1.2170.
I HAVE POINTED TO THE BEST BUY POINTS, SOME OF THEM NEED TO THE BOLD INVESTOR LIKE POINTS 1,2. THE PARTIAL DECLINE HAS FORMED ,GOOOD ! TRADE IT, EXPEXT THE BREAKOUT TO BE UPWARD
I DO THINK POINT 2 IS THE BEST ENTRY TO RIDE AN EXPCTED RUNWAY RALLY
THE (THIRD WAVE OF THE FIFTH OR C WAVE IS UNDERWAY ) HOWEVER, WE HAD TO LET THE DEVELPOING ADVANCE UNFOLD. ANYWAY A MINIMUM TARGET IS 1.2245
MAY HAVE EXTENDED TO 1.2380
A SIDE NOTE:- I USED A CLSSICAL ANALYSIS WITH ELLIOTT WAVE PRINCIPLES TO SHOW THE BEST ENTRY POINTS
FOR INSTANCE POINT 2 , IN ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS IS THE BEST ENTRY POINT WETHER THE WAVE IS THE THIRD OR C, ON THE OTHER HAND A CLASSICAL ANALYSIS CONSIDERS IT AS A BOLD INVESTMENT
KEEP IN MIND , THAT EURO MAYBE FORM A TRIANGLE, IF SO ,THE UPWARD BREAKOUT WAS WAVE C OF B OF TRIANGLE, MORE LIKELY ENDED AT 1.2245 AND GONNA SEE A THROWBACK AS WAVE C OF TRIANGLE
PLACE UR STOP BELOW 1.2110
2021-02-24
GAMESTOP IS ON THE RISE
GAME STOP SHARES ARE BACK ON AN INTRADAY TEAR TO CLIMB MORE THAN 80% ON WEDNESDAY
COPPER
COPPER FUTURES HAS CRACKED $4 A POUND FOR THE FIREST TIME SINCE 2011
ASIDE FROM FUNDEMENTALS LIKE EXPECTIONS FOR A GLOBAL ECONOMIC RECOVERY AND A RISE IN RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCESL LIFFTING THE INDUSTRIAL METAL‘S DEMAND OUTLOOK
THE CHART ABOVE TELL US - ACCORDING TO EWP PERSPECTIVE - THAT THE RECENT MASSIVE RALLY IN COPPER DUE TO THE POST TRIANGLE THRUST
AS WE PROBABLY KNOW THE RALLY WHICH IS FOLLOWING THE TRAINGLE NORMALLY MAKES A SWIFT AND SHARP MOVE
THE NEAR TERM UPSIDE TARGETS SET AT $4900 THEN $5250
NOTICE THAT THE DOUBLE BOTTOM PRICE TARGET CONFIRMES THE FIRST UPSIDE TARGET AT $4900
2021-02-23
LARGE-CAP MUTUAL FUNDS
LARGE-CAP MUTUAL FUNDS ARE UNDERWEIGHT RETAIL FAVORTIES
2- YEAR NOTES
THE TREASURY SOLD $60 BILLION OF 2- YEAR NOTES TODAY AT A PREMIUM,ABOVE 100 CENTS ON THE DOLLAR, SOTHING THAT‘S NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE
DOLLAR INDEX
I MENTIONED EALIER THAT THE DOLLAR HAS BOUNCED IN CORRECTIVE MOVE, AND THAT MEANS UNSUSTAINED RISE, THEN THE HEAD AND SHOULDERS WAS FORMED ,NO NO MATTER OF WHAT JEROME POWELL SAID TODA.DOLLAR WILL CONTINUE HEADS LOWER TO COMPLET THE HEAD AND SHOULDERS TARGET AND THE FIFTH WAVE OF C
THE CALCULTED TARGET IF WAVE FOUR INDEED IS COMPLETE AT 91.60 IS 88.5-87.8 RANGE
NOTICE, HEAD AND SHOULDERS COULD BE PART OF TRAINGLE THAT IS STILL FORMING
2021-02-22
RETURN
A BASKET OF MOST SHORTED US STOCKS HAS RALLIED BY 71% OVER THE LAST 3 MONTHS
US GDP
GOLDMAN SACHS IS MORE OTIMISTIC THAN CONSENSUS AND NOW EXPECTS 2021 US GDP IS GROW AT 7%
BTC vs USD
ON THE 4h CHART ABOVE WE HAVE BEEN SEEING HOW THE UPTREND ACCELERATED, SO IT WAS A NEED FOR DRAWING THE SECOND TREND LINE TO MORE CLOSELY TRACK THE RISING TREND . BUT THE BREAKING OF THE STEPPER TRENDLINE(2) MIGHE HAVE CAUSED PRICES TO REACH THE SLOWER TRENDLINE
INDEED, THIS IS WHAT HAPPENED , BUT THE SLOWER TRENDLINE(1) IS STILL IN EFFECT SO FAR. KEEP IN MIND BREAKING OF THE SLOWER TRENDLINE MAY HAVE TAKEN BITCOIN A MINIMUM OF $38000(TRENDLINE MIRRORS) OR EVEN LESS
NOTICE THE BREAKING OF THE STEPPER TRENDLINE CONFIIRMED THE NEGATIVE DIVERGANCE ON THE RSI
2021-02-20
PERFORMANCE
IN THE NAME OF ALLAH THE MOST GRACIOUS THE MOST MERCIFUL
WILL THE DIVERGENCE CONTINUE TO WIDEN ?
DEBT TO GDP RATIOS
WHO'S DEBT TO GDP IS CHANGING FASTEST?
NUMBER OF SPAC IPOs
SPAC IPOs ARE BOOMING
ARE THEY IN A BUBBLE?
2021-02-19
BTC vs USD
BITCOIN HITS $1tn IN MARKET VALUE FOR THE FIRST TIME AMID EPIC RALLY
THE RED HOT CRYPTOCURRENCY NOCHES A RECORD HIGH AT $56000
👇I CALLED $55000-$56000 RANGE IN THE PREVIOUS ANALYSIS OF BTC
https://stockcharts-home.blogspot.com/2021/02/btc-vs-usd.html
THE NEXT UPSIDE TARGET AT $60000 OR EVEN MORE
.
FINANCIAL SECTOR OF S&P 500
THE FINANCIAL SECTOR IS A LEADER SECTOR AND PLAY A VITAL ROLE IN ALL MARKETS. BUT IT‘S LAGGING AWAY BEHIND THE BRODER MARKETS
FINALLY THE FINANCIAL SECTOR OF S&P 500 HAS SMASHED THROUGH 31.4 TO HIT A NEW ALL TIME HIGH
KEEP AN EYE ON THE NEGATIVE FAILURE SWING ON THE RSI, THIS SIGNAL IS STRONGER THAN DIVERGENCE AND MORE RELIABLE
2021-02-18
US 10 YT
US 10 YT STILL HAS FURTHER UPSIDE TO GO
THE COMPLEX HEAD AND SHOULDERS BOTTOM (OR CUP WITH HANDLE) TARGET HIGHLY CORRESPONDS WITH THE ASCENDING CHANNEL TARGET AT RUOGHLY 1.43%
MAY BE PRICES PULLING BACK TO FILL THE GAP THEN HEADING UP TO 1.43%
2021-02-17
NUMBERS OF RUSSELL 2000 STOCKS ABOVE 200-DAY
NUMBERS OF RUSSELL 2000 STOCKS ABOVE 200-DAY
FLOW
IS HIGHER INFLATION COMING ? INVERSTORS ARE HEADING INTO INFLATION FRIENDLY ASSETS
GOLD
IN THE NAME OF ALLAH THE MOST GRACIOUS THE MOST MERCIFUL
IT IS NOT ONLY A RUNAWAY RALLY IN GLOBAL BOND YIELDS IS PUTTING PREESSRE ON GOLD. BUT FROM A TECHNICAL PERSPECTIVE AS SEEN ON THE CHART ABOVE THE 50 DAY MOVING AVERAGE CROSSED BELOW THE 200 DAY MOVING AVERGE AT RUOGHLY $1830 AND IF GOLD SETTLED BELOW $1785, FURTHER PAIN COULD BE IMMENENT
BE CAUTIOUS :- THE NEXT DOWNSIDE TARGET COULD HIT $1700
FINALLY, U SHOULD KNOW THAT THE $1700 IS IMPORTANT PSYCHOLOGICAL SUPPORT AND IF WE WERE TO BREAK DOWN BELOW IT , WE WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO AN EXTENSION OF DOWNSIDE TOWARD SUPPORT IN THE $1660-$1670 REGION, POSSIBLY EVEN THE $1635 LEVEL OVER THE MEDIUM TERM
2021-02-16
REAL AND FINANCIAL ASSETS WITH INFLATION
THIS CHART SHOWS THE CORRELATION OF REAL AND FINANCIAL ASSETS WITH INFLATION FLATION SINCE 1950
CRUDE OIL
IN THE NAME OF ALLAH THE MOST GRACIOUS THE MOST MERCIFUL
HOW MUCH HIGHER CAN OIL PRICES GO ?
INITIAL TARGET AT 62.5 STILL IN FOCUS. DON‘T CARE ABOUT SHOOTING STAR CANDLE OR THAT OIL SITS IN OVERBOUGHT TERRITORY,ALL THAT OIL NEEDS IS PULLING BACK TO 57-57.5 RANGE AND MOST LIKELY WILL DO
BEAR IN MIND THAT OIL COULD TOTCH $90 IN COMING MONTHES, MAY BE BY YEAR END
2021-02-15
SHARE BUYBACKS
SHARE BUYBACKS ARE ON THE RISE. THAT‘S GOOD FOR STOCKS
EARNINGS SENTIMENT
EARNINGS SENTIMENT REMAINS POSITIVE
TWITTER SHARES ON THE VERGE OF ITS ATH AT $74.80. I DO THINK PROFIT TAKING AT THE DOOR ESPECIALLY TWITTER AT THE MEGA-OVERBOUT TERRITORY ON THE DIALY CHART, AND LONG TRADERS MAY TAKE PROFITS AT KEY AREA OF RESISTANCE , HOWEVER IF THAT HAPPENS, PRICES COULD STEP LOWER IN THE COMING DAYS TO HIT $63- $62 RANGE
BUT IF THE CRAB SELL PATTERN COMPLETES , TWITTER HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REACH $112
2021-02-13
EARNINGS GROWTH EXPECTATIONS
OMG!😲 EARNINGS GROWTH EXPECTION
CHANGES IN RATES & STOCK RETURNS
THIS CHART SUGGESTS THERE IS NO CLEAR RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CHANGES IN RATES(CAPTURED BY 10Y TREASURY YIELD) AND S&P 12 MONTH RETURNS USING DATA FROM 1928 - TODAY
BUBBLE‘S LIFE CYCLE
IS THE EQUITY MARKET‘S RISE DRIVEN BY MANIA ?
2021-02-12
EARNINGS ESTIMATES
SO FAR, 80% OF COMPANIES BEAT ESIMATES BY AN AVEARGE OF 19%
BITCOIN vs TESLA
IN THE NAME OF ALLAH THE MOST GRACIOUS THE MOST MERCIFUL
DO U THINK THAT BITCOIN AND TESLA ARE CORRELATED?
YES , I DO THINK SINCE MARCH LOW 2020 THEY ARE IN A POSITIVE CORRELATION MAYBE TESLA LATELY HAS BEEN CONSOLIDATING, THEN RESUMES ITS SURGE
ALL I CAN SAY , THEY ARE IN A THIRD OF A THIRD WAVE. ACCORDING TO EWP IT‘S THE STRONGEST WAVE IN ACTIONARY WAVES EVER, SO DON‘T BE SURPRISED WHEN U SEE ASSETS IN THIS STAGE ARE OVERVALUED
2021-02-11
RISKY VS SAFE ASSETS FUND FLOWS
RISKY VS SAFE ASSETS FUND FLOWS HAVE TURNED POSITIVE
DOLLAR INDEX
I SAID BEFORE BE CAREUL OF THE DOLLAR‘S LATEST BOUNCE BECAUSE IT‘S A CORRECTIVE ADVANCE . UNDER THIS HYPOTHESIS DOLLAR SHOULD RATCHET DOWN IN AN IMPULSIVE MANNER TO MAKE ANEW LOW BELOW 89.20. WE NEED ONLY CLOSING BELOW 90.09
NOTICE;- WE HAVE A STRONG EVIDENCES THAT THE BOUNCE WAS A CORRECTIVE IN NATURE. FROM A STRUCTRUAL PERSPECTIVE THE THREE WAVE ADVANCE FROM THE LOW OF 89.20 WAS CONTAINED WITHIN PARALLEL , THE TWO UP LEGS ARE NEARLY EQUAL IN LENGTH AND THE SLOPE OF THE SECOND UP LEG IS FLATTER THAN THE FIRST.
ALL COMMON CHARACTERISTICS OF ZIGZAG. FROM A TECHNICAL PERSPECTIVE BREAK BELOW THE LOWER TRENDLINE IN FIVE WAVES DECLINE ACOMPANIED WITH A MOMENTUM BERARISH DIVERGENCE ARE CONFIRMED THAT THE (iv) WAVE IS IN PLACE. FINALLY WAVE (v) MAY BE TRUNCATED (DOSN‘T TRVEL BEYOND LOW OF 89.20) OR HITTING THE LOW OF 88.80
2021-02-10
US FISCAL STIMULUS
THE ADDITIONAL $1.9 T FISCAL STIMULUS WILL OVERHEAT THE US ECONOMY
.
EARINGS
US COMPANIES BEAT EARINGS ESTIMATES THAN IN EUROPE, JPAN AND EM
GOLD
ACCORDING TO OUR INTERPRETATION, THE BOUNCE OF $1784 IS JUST A COUNTER TREND AS WAVE 2 OF (c) OF Y (CIRCLE) AS A DOUBLE ZIGZAG CORRECTION IN MINOR FOURTH WAVE
AS THE CHART SHOWS THE COMMON RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN WAVE W AND Y TEND TOWARDS EQUALITY IN MAGNITUDE , AS WAVE A AND C IN SINGLE ZIGZAG (W=Y, A=C), NOTICE WE HAVE WAVE W =Y ,ROUGHLY AT 1735 , THE END C OF Y = A AT NEARLY 1715 THEN WE HAVE A POWERFULL ARGEMENT FOR EXPECTING A TURN AT CALULATED PRICE RANGE AT $ 1735- $ 1715 SO WE THINK WAVE 4 IS STILL ONGOING AND OUR OUTLOOKWILL NOT CHANGE IF ONLY GOLD CLOSE BACK ABOVE $ 1876
2021-02-09
NASDAQ 100
IS VOLATILITY UP CAUSE PEOPLE ARE RUSHING IN ?
BTC vs USD
IN THE NAME OF ALLAH THE MOST GRACIOUS THE MOST MERCIFUL
I HAVE DECIDED NOT TO TALK ABOUT BITCOIN UNTIL THE OBECTIVES THAT I MENTIONED IN POST ON 7/1/2021 COMPLETE
https://stockcharts-home.blogspot.com/2021/01/blog-post_7.html
YESTERDAY BITCOIN BEGAN TO NOTCHING THE $45000 LEVEL THEN IT IS ON VERGE OF REACHING $49000 THE THIRD TARGET I MENTIONED
I SAID ALSO , THERE IS LOT OF GAS LEFT IN THE TANK TO DRIVE BITCOIN HIGHER AND THINGS WILL NOT END THERE
TODAY THE CHART ABOVE TELLS THE STORY AND CONFIRMS WHAT WE HAD EXPECTED
WAVE v OF (v) (GREEN) IS EXTENDED AND THERE IS MORE ROOM TO THE UPSIDE COULD HIT $55000-56000 RANGE THEN $60000
2021-02-08
NASDAQ
HISTORY SUGGESTS THE TECH BUBBLE IS NOT EXPECTED TO POP ANY TIME SOON
S&P 500 UPDATE
ON 10/100/2020 I MENTIONED TO TTHE HARMONIC PATTERN (BEARISH DEEP CRAB) https://stockcharts-home.blogspot.com/2020/11/s-500.html. TODAY I WANT TO ADD THE 1.902 XA ADDITIONAL MEASURMENT, IT IS A COMPLEMENTARY TOLERRANCE MEASURE BEYOND THE 161.8% XA, EFFECTIVE IN SPECIFIC SITTUATIONS
THIS PATTERN AS WE SEE EXCEEDED THE 1.618 XA AND STILL KEEPS GOING UP TO 1.902 AT 3930
STOP LOSS ABOVE 200% XA AT 3970
2021-02-06
YIELD
IF THE 10Y YIELD RISE TO 1.75% BY YEAR END ONLY 44% OF S&P 500 STOCKS WILL HAVE A DIVIDENT YIELD HIGHER THAN THAN THE 10Y YIELD
US INFLATION EXPECTATIONS
US INFLATION EXPECTATIONS ARE AT THIER HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE MARCH 2013
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ETH vs USD (ETHEREUM)
ETHEREUM SINCE MARCH LOW HELD AND HAS CONTINUED TO HOLD THE UPSIDE. THEN BREAK ABOVE $363 THE ANTICIPATED THIRD WAVE ADVANCE HAS BEEN UNLEASHED AND ETH ON ITS WAY TO SETTING NEW RECORDS. AFTER THAT WE NOTED, REBOUND FROM LOW OF $310 SURGED IN A POWERFULL RALLY AS THIRD OF THIRD THAT MOSTLY OFTEN THE STRONGEST WAVE IN THE THIRD WAVE THAT CONFIRMS REGISER ALL TIME NEW HIGHS ABOVE $1424 AHEAD, NOW THAT ETH HAS SET THOSE NEW RECORDS, EXPECT IT IS GOING TO THE MOON 😁
THE NEXT UPWARD TARGET AT $2000, BUT THINGS WILL NOT END THERE
2021-02-05
US SHORT INTEREST
SHORT INTEREST CONTINUES TO DECLINE ON THE NYSE
US GOVERMMENT BOND CURVE
THE TREASURY CURVE CONTINUE TO STEEPEN
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