We are not overly far from energy price levels that could trigger a global recession.. Clearly not there yet, but trends need to turn soon.
2021-09-30
USD vs TRY
TURKISH LIRA IS STILL STRUGGLING AGAINST THE US DOLLAR. LATELY HAS BEEN FORMING A BEARISH CRAB PATTERN , THE PRZ OF THE PATTERN IN 9.35-9.65 RANGE
THE BEARISH CRAB PATTERN CLEARY DEFINED THE 9.65 LEVEL AS IMPORTANT RESISTANCE
2021-09-29
GROWTH vs VALUE
Could Growth vs. Value still reach a new high?
S&P 500
Does consumer confidence improve or do equities fall?
2021-09-28
BITCOIN
History suggested Bitcoin would have a rough September. That, once again, has turned out to be prescient
NDX100
TECH HEAVY NASDAQ LEADING THE WAY, IF MY EWP IS CORRECT WE MAY HAVE BEEN STARTED THE THIRD WAVE,THAT WAVE ALWAYS HAS A SHARP MOVEMENT, IT DOES HAVE ALWAYS A MOMENTUM BEHIND IT ....AND ULTIMATELY SETS THE STAGE FOR A DOWNSIDE TARGET AT LEAST AT 13950 OR EVEN LESS
👈KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE MARKET👀 ,👉 AND STAY ALERT
NOTE,MOSTLY THE FIRST LEG OF CORRECTION IN A ZIGZAG PATTERN IS FINISHED AT THE FOURTH OF THE IMPLUSIVE ADVANCE AS SHOWN ON THE ABOVE CHART
2021-09-27
2021-09-25
PERFORMANCE
n a lower growth world, are growth stocks going to permanently outperform value stocks?
EVERGRANDE
EVERGRANDE SHARES ACCORDING TO MY MAIN SCENARIO HAD COMPLETED FIVE WAVES UP ADVANCE AND A SHARP SELLOFF TOOK PLACE AS WAVE TWO(RED CIRCLE)
EVERGRANDE NEEDS TO FIVE WAVES UP TO CONFIRM THAT THE CORRECTION IS OVER
NOTICE WHEN PRICES BREAK BELOW THE 44.4 THE CHANGE IN UPTREND OCCURED
2021-09-24
INFLATION
IN THE NAME OF ALLAH THE MOST GRACIOUS THE MOST MERCIFUL
Most major central banks have a pretty terrible track record of reaching their inflation targets for sustained periods of time
DIVIDEND
Real estate dividends are expected to increase by 10% in 2022
APPLE
APPLE FORMS AN UPWARD PRICE CHANNEL AT A SHALLOWER ANGLE THAN THE PRIOR ASCENT, THAT MOMENTUM LOSS IS AWARNING. MOREOVER APPLE FAILED TO REACH THE TOP TRENDLINE, THIS THE EARLY WARNING THAT THE LOWER LINE WILL BE BROKEN.SO, HOWEVER $120 LEVEL AT LEAST SHOULD BE TESTED
2021-09-23
HIGH YIELD BONDS
IN THE NAME OF ALLAH THE MOST GRACIOUS THE MOST MERCIFUL
Currently, US high yield bonds no longer compensate for US inflation
GBP/USD
Non-commercial traders slightly increased their net short position in the GBP last week
BITCOIN
Funding has turned negative again
Some traders are about to be short squeezed on bitcoin
2021-09-22
FED FUNDS RATE
Fed signaled it could start reversing its pandemic stimulus programs in Nov & could raise interest rates next year. Rate-setting committee revised its postmeeting statement to say that it could start to taper its $120bn in mthly asset purchases as soon as its next meeting, Nov2-3
NVIDIA
NVIDIA SHARES FORMED A DISTINICT BEARISH DEEP CRAB ,THAT COMPLETED AT $230 THEN THE STOCK REVERSED IDEALLY AND DROPED BACK TO THE FIRST INTIAL DOWN SIDE TARGET AT $210, NOTICE THAT, THE STOCK MAYBE CONTINUE LOWER TO HIT THE SCOND DOWNSIDE AT $200, BUT I ANTICPATE A RECOVERY IN RANGE OF 218-221 BEFORE RESUMING THE DOWN TREND AND HITTING THE SCOND DOWNSIDE TARGET
BE CAUTIOUS IF PRICES AXEEDED THE 61.8% OF THE AD SWING, THE PRICE MEASURMENTS OF THE 0.786, 0886, 1 , AND SO ON SHOULD BE CONSIDERED AS WELL
2021-09-21
CHINESE STOCK
Chinese growth stocks are not a bargain yet
FED FUNDS
The Federal Reserve has run the easiest monetary policy in history
S&P 500
S&P 500 BROKE DOWN THE LONG TERM UPTREND AMID HIGH VOLUME TRADIND
2021-09-20
SENTIMENT
The Fear & Greed Index stands at 21, signaling fear in the US stock market
RETURS
When the real S&P 500 index is very extended from its exponential growth trend line, it can take a long time to recover from a bear market, despite the Fed's interventions
DOW JONES
IT SEEMS THAT THE US MAJOR INDEXES HAVE COMPLETED THE FIVE WAVES UP SEQUENCE AND CORRECTION IS TAKING PLACE AS INTERMEDIATE WAVE (2)
NOTICE THAT GAPS USULLY AR THE CHARCUTERIES OF THE THIRD WAVES,AND THEY ARE WORKING AS A CONTIIUATION GAPS(SPECIFICALLY THE THIRD OF THE THIRD) WHICH SET THE STAGE FOR 33350
MAYBE SEE A SMALL RETRACING A PORTION OF THE RECENT DECLINEN BUT KEEP IN MIND THAT THE THIRD WAVE IS A WAVE OF A LARGER FIVE WAVE DECLINE
2021-09-18
INFLATION vs WAGES GROWTH
Wage growth is expected to increase. Will wages increases lead to inflation?
2021-09-17
SPAC IOPs
Despite regulatory pressure, SPAC issuance has accelerated
FANG INDEX vs NDX 100
DESPITE THE FANG INDEX AND NDX100 ARE STRONGLY POSITIVELY CORRELRATED, BUT WE NOTED NDX100 WAS FASTER THAN FANG INDEX TO BROKE OUT THE SIDEWAYS REGION, BUT THE UPTREND IN INDX 100 HAS HAD ENOUGH POSITIVE MOMENTUM BEHIND IT IN THE RECENT TIME
2021-09-16
2021-09-15
EQUITY MARKET
As the equity market reaches new highs, the divergence in the advance-decline line suggests we may be approaching a top. In the past, such divergence has indicated the market is vulnerable to a sell-off. Seasonals suggest caution.
DAX 30 (GERMAN BLUE CHIP STOCK MARKET INDEX)
DAX 30(GERMAN BLUE CHIP STOCK MARKET INDEX) HAS BROKEN BELOW POST COVID UPTREND LINE THAT DEFINED ITS RECOVERY OFF THE MARCH LOWS, BUT PERHAPS MORE WORRISOME FOR BULLS, BEACUSE THE DOW THEORY SAYS A TREND REMAIN I PLACE UNTIL IT HAS GIVEN SIGNS THAT IT HAS REVERSED, SO A BREAK OF AN UPTREND LINE SUGGESTS THAT A NEW DOWNTREND MAY HAVE JUST BEGUN
HOWEVER MONITOR CAREFULLY LEVEL OF 15000
GLOBAL FOOD PRICES
Global food prices were up 33% in August from a year earlier. Food is now more expensive than almost anytime in the past six decades: UN data.
2021-09-14
S&P 500 vs EARNINGS
Many people will show you charts of the Fed balance sheet vs the S&P500, but few will show you charts of earnings vs the S&P500.
CRUDE OIL
WHAT ABOUT RISK ON IN CRUDE OIL ?
TODAY OIL PRICES TURNED NEGATIVE AFTER THE US LABOR DEPARTMENT SHOWED INFLATION COOLING AND THE IMPACT OF TROPCAL STORM NICHOLAS ON THE ENERGY SECTOR BEGAN TO IMPOROVE
I DO THINK OIL WILL CONTINUE TO COSOLIDATE IN MORE SIDEWAYS BETWEEN 62-77 ALTHOUGH THERE IS MORE THAN ONE CONSOLIDATION PATTERN WITH UPSIDE TARGET, LIKE BUMAP AND RUN OR THE BULLISH PENNANT
BUT IT IS VERY IMOPRTANT FOR OIL TO BREAKTHROUGH $74..25 TO MAKE SURE THAT THE CORRECTION IS OVER , AND OIL IS ON ITS WAY TO ACHIEVE A NEW HIGH
2021-09-13
US EQUITY MARKET
How long will liquidity fuel the US stock market rally?
DOLLAR INDEX
DOLLAR ‘S INVESTORS AWAIT FED MEETING ON 21-22 SEP, ESPECIALLY FOMC POLICY TOWARDS BOND TAPERING
SOME OF FED MEMBERS STILL SUPPORT A GRADUAL WIND DOWN OF MONTHLY ASSET PURACHASES IN OCTOBER, AS LONG AS THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK DOES NOT FUNDAMENTALLY CHANGE
FROM TECHNICAL PERSPECTIVE, I THINK DOLLAR EVENTUALLY HAS FOUND THE SOLID LOW TO REBOUND AND CHANGE ITS DIRECTION TO UPTREND IN MEDIUM,AND LONG TRERM.WE HAVE ALREADY A DOUBLE BOTTOM WHICH MAYBE DEVELOP INTO A HUGE HEAD AND SHOULDERS BOTTOM, BUT DOLLAR IS STILL UNABLE TO HOLD ABOVE 93.48
AND NOW KEEP UR EYE ON 92 LEVEL, IF DOLLAR BREAKS BELOW THAT LEVEL , SMALLER HEAD AND SHOULDERS TOP IS IN PLACE, SUGGESTING DOWNSIDE TARGET AT 90LONGING DOLLAR CAN BE AS SIMPLE AS BUYING ABOVE 93.48 OR ABOVE 94.75
2021-09-11
BUYBACKS
Stock buybacks continue to increase and that's good news for stocks
BITCOIN SENTIMENT
IN THE NAME OF ALLAH THE MOST GRACIOUS THE MOST MERCIFUL
Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index is 31 ~ Fear
2021-09-10
CHINA PMI vs REST OF THE WORLD
The open question: can the rest of the world keep humming while the Chinese economy slows down?
RETUN
IN THE NAME OF ALLAH THE MOST GRACIOUS THE MOST MERCIFUL
The current S&P 500 valuation suggests that equity investors should expect negative annualized returns over the next 10 years
2021-09-09
S&P 500 EARININGS GROWTH
Everything is awesome
US HOME PRICE
Are US home prices relative to household incomes on the way to the moon?
2021-09-08
VIX vs SPX
VIX AND MAJOR INDICES LIKE SPX , DJA ARE STRONGLY AND INVERSALY CORRELATED
SEASONALITY
Warnings getting louder that relentless runup in US equity prices is set to falter. Strategists at Goldman, Morgan Stanley & Citigroup issued fresh missives on potential for neg shocks to upend a streak of gains. Sep is the worst month of a year for stocks
GLOBAL CREDIT IMPULSE
The global credit impulse took a dive in the middle of the year
2021-09-07
CONSUMERS
US auto sales have fallen by 14% YoY in August, amid weaker consumer confidence and spending in the US
DOW JONES
THE RECENT DOW PRICE ACTION LOOKS A RISING WEDGE IS UNDERWAY, FROM EWP PRESPECTIVE, IT‘S AN ENDING DIAGONAL , SO AFTER THE SMALL CORRECTIVE MOVE PRICE SHOULD BE HEADING UP AGAIN TO COMPLETE THE FIFITH WAVE OF THE DIAGONAL STRUCTURE(MIGHTBE CALLING ANOTHER NEW ALL-TIME HIGH ABOVE 35600)
2021-09-06
WORLD TOOTAL STOCK MKT CAP
BOOM! Global stocks have gained another $1.6tn in mkt cap this week. Equities now worth $120.3tn, highest in history because the Fed aren't going to taper anytime soon after the weaker econ numbers. Global stock mkt cap now equals to 142% of world GDP an ATH as well.
BTC vs USD
IN THE NAME OF ALLAH THE MOST GRACIOUS THE MOST MERCIFUL
AS SHOWN ON CHART NO 1 , IM STILL BULLISH ON BITCOIN ..... FOR MORE DETAILS
BITCOIN COMPLETED FOUR WAVES ON MINOR DEGREE OF IMPLUSIVE ADVANCE WHICH BEGAN IN LATE 2018 , MINOR FOURTH WAVE WAS IN PLACE AT 29250 AND FIFTH WAVE IN ADVANCE , THIS SCENARIO NEEDS A CONFIRMATION FROM PRICE , WHEN BITCOIN MAKE A NEW ALL TIME HIGH ABOVE 64000
THE BEARISH ALTERNATE (CHART NO 2) SUGGESTS THAT, THE MINOR FOURTH WAVE IS IN PLAY AS A SINGLE ZIGZAG PATTERN , SPECIFICALLY BITCOIN COMPLETED FIVE WAVE DOWN AT 29250 AS WAVE A, I DO TTHINK WAVE B ENDED AT 52750 OR ABOUT GOING TO END(PRICE MAY EXTEND TO 58000) , AND FINALLY ANOTHER DROP TOWARDS 22000 (IF C=A) COMPLETEING THE CYCLE OF FOURTH WAVE CORRECTION
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