A NICE CHART OF BRENT OIL MAKE US PUZZLED WHETHER ONE OF THE HARMONIC PATTERNS WILL COMPLETE AT $85(BEARISH BAT PPATERN) OR AT $100 AS A BEARISH CRAB PATTERN . CONVERSELY HEAD AND SHOULDERS MIGHT BE FORMING
2021-12-31
US EQUITY MARKET CAP vs GDP
Updated chart of US equity market cap (using Wilshire 5000 as a proxy) compared to US GDP and US M2.
INFLATION
Despite inflation worries, US core PCE inflation remains below what a 2% trend would have done since 2002
EUR vs USD
I MENTIONED EARLIER , THAT THE ADVANCE FROM LAST MARCH LOW AT 1.0635 TO JAN 2021 HIGH AT 1.2349 WAS A FIVE WAVES UP RALLY AS WAVE (1) OR (A), SINCE THEN CORRECTION HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE AS WAVE (2) OR (B).
AS WE CAN SEE THE CORRECTIVE WAVE MOSTLY LIKE A ZIGZAG PATTERN , AND THE THIRD WAVE IS STILL IN PROGRESSING, MIGHTBE HIT AT LEAST 1.1090 LOW
I DO THINK THE FOURTH SUBWAVE (ORANGE) OF THE THIRD(CIRCLE GRAY) WILL NOT OVERLAP WITH THE 1.1524, OTHERWISE THIS SCENARIO WILL BE NAGATED, BUT I DO THINK THE MOST LIKELY FOURTH SUBWAVE WILL BE A TRIANGLE AND THE WHOLE CORRECTION IS COMPLETE AT 1.0820. MOREOVER THE BULLISH ALTERNATE BAT PATTERN WHICH IS COMPLETE AT 1.0820 BOLSTERS THE IDEA, THAT THE CORRECTION WILL END THERE
EVENTUALLY DONT FORGET , THE SECOND WAVE WHEN IS ITSELF A ZIGZAG PATTERN MOVE DOWN INTO THE AREA OF THE SECOND WAVE OF LESSER DEGREE(LOOK AT THE RANGE OF 1.0776-1.1144 INTO THE CIRCLE ON THE LEFT SIDE AT THE BOTTOM OF THE CHART
2021-12-30
SEMICONDCTORS
Semiconductors have completed a broadening top.
This is the highest daily volatility at an all time high since the Flash Crash top May 2010.
S&P 500 % OF GDP
Heading into 2022, the S&P 500 stands at a record-breaking 165% of US GDP
USD vs TRY (EWP PERSPECTIVE)
REGARDLESS OF EROGAN‘S DECISIONS , AND WHETHER UR ONE OF HIS SUPPORTERS OR CRITICS, BUT HERE OUR INTERPRETATION IS BASED ON THE BASSIC PRICIPLES OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ONLY. FROM MY EWP PERSPECTIVE I CAN SAY THAT THE USD/TRY ENDED ITS LONG TERM UPTREND AT 18.6 AS A PRIMARY SCENARIO, SO THE RECENT DECLINE IN FIVE WAVES DOWN WAS THE FIRST LEG OF THE CORRECTION AND THAT SUGGESTS THE CORRECTIVE MANNER WILL BE ZIGZAG WAVE (5-3-5) AND JUST FINISHED THE FIRST SEGMENT ONLY AS WAVE A (CIRCLE IN RED) FOLLOWED BY A TEMPORARY BOUNCE TO 13.5 OR 15 THEN ANOTHER MOVE DOWN TO POSSIBALE TARGET AT 7.25 OR AT 5
SOME MAY DISAGREE WITH ME ABOUT EXTREM MOMONETUM AND VOLUME AND ARGUE , THAT THE USD/TRY IS IN THIRD OF THIRD THAT THE STRONGEST WAVE EVER IN AN IMPLUSIVE ADVANCE, THIS IS A CONSIDERING OPINOIN ,AND I PUT IT AS ALTERNATIVE COUNT, BECAUSE I SATED EALIER THAT THE WAVE WIL BE A ZIGZAG PATTERN I MEAN THAT IS NOT COMPLETE YET , AND LOOK AT THE FIRST LEG RETRACED OUT MORE THAN 61.8% OF THE PRIOR WAVE(8.27-18.60) OR EVEN WE ASSUMED THAT THE WAVE STARTED AT 5.12, IT SHOULD IN BOTH CASES OVERLAPING WILL OCCURE BETWEEN THE FOURTH WAVE (CURRENT DECLINE) AND THE WAVE ONE REGARDLESS OF WETHER THE TOP OF WAVE ONE AT 8.82 OR AT 8.60 ACCORDING TO THE BEST COUNT
BUT MY LOGICAL INTERPRETATION FOR THE CASE OF HIGH MOMENTUM AND HIGH VOLUME THAT THE FIFTH WAVE IN THE HIGHER DEGREES OF IMPLUSIVE ADVANCE (ABOVE INTERMEDIATE DEGREE) CONTAINS A LARGE AMOUNT OF SPCULATIONS, IN ADDITION TO THE FACT THAT MOST OF THE HERD ENTERS UNCONSCIOULY AT THIS POINT TO MAKE UP FOR WHAT THEY MISSED(FOMO), RESULTING IN A SURGE IN VOLUME AND MOMENTUM
2021-12-29
TURKISH LIRA
This is what happens when citizens lose faith in their currency
COMMODITIES vs EQUIITY RATIO
The commodities-to-equity ratio is now at even lower levels than at other times when we experienced other major macro regime changes, such as the early 1970s and 2000s.
Both times we had the stock market trading at excessive valuations while commodities were at depressed levels
THE US MAJOR INDICES
BULLISH NON CONFIRMATION BETWEEN THE US MAJOR INDICES, I ANTICIPATE MORE RISING AND NEW ALL TIME HIGHS IN 2022
2021-12-28
RETURNS
Should US equity investors be worried that the US stock-to-bond ratio is at an extreme level
S&P 500 WITH MACD
The really important part of the chart below is the massive extension of the MACD from more normal levels. Such suggests an eventual reversion should be of greater magnitude....or...."Stocks have reached a permanently high plateau.
BTC vs USD
BITCOIND FORMED A DISTINCT BULLISH SHARK PATTERN , THE 1.618 OF AB COMPLETION BEFORE THE 88.6% OF 0X INDICATES THAT THE BULLISH SHARK IS COMPLETE AT THE 88.6% OF 0B(42100), U CAN TAKE UR INITIAL PROFIT TARGET AT 55000
NOTICE, THAT THE BULLISH SHARK COULD MORPH INTO A BEARISH THE 0-5 PATTERN. IF THAT THE CASE, ANTICIPATE THE DOWNWARD TREND WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY AFTER BREAKING DOWN THE 42000 LEVEL
2021-12-27
S&P 500 NEW RECORD HIGH
The S&P 500 posted its 69th record close for the year, with all major industry groups advancing
BITCOIN
The #Bitcoin 4.272 Fibonacci "Peak Target" is $279.8K.
In 2017 the 3.272 target was $17.5K & the peak $19.8K.
In 2013 the 2.272 target was $1,088 & the peak $1,242.
These targets stemming from the 2011 cycle have been among the most accurate top signals to date
EUR vs USD
THE DOWNSIDE TARGET OF THE HEAD AND SHOULDERS COMPLEX HEADS AT 1.0950 IS STILL IN OPERATION
2021-12-25
S&P 500: NUMBER OF ALL TIME HIGHS BY YEAR
Not quite a new ATH in ATH's but pretty close to it -- the year 2021 in second place at an updated 68 new All-Time-Highs.
FLOWS INTO GLOBAL EQUUITY FUNDS
Global inflows into equities topped $1tn the past year
2021-12-24
FED BALANCE SHEET
The Fed's balance sheet hit another record this week at $8.79 trillion. It has more than doubled over the last 2 years
S&P 500 SEASONALITY
2021 was a very good year for $SPX Seasonality Tracking: set a mid-Oct low, Oct Surge, early November pullback, then final melt-up starting mid-Dec. Last phase now. If it continues tracking, this buy dips rally goes until Jan 10-15
FAT TAIL RISKS FOR MARKETS IN 2022
The truth is that Wall Street and the investment crowd are always looking in the rear view mirror.
While I agree that inflation is here to stay, that’s not the biggest tail-risk for 2022.
It’s this frothy equity market as Fed takes the liquidity punch bowl away
2021-12-23
GBP vs JPY
THE GBP/JPY PAIR IS LIKELY TO RISE TO THE RANGE OF 154-156 . IM ANTICIPATING THE BOUNCE IS THE RIGHT SHULDER OF THE HEAD AND SHOULDERS ,AND THEN CONTINUE FALLING TO RANGE138-140 IF PRICE BREAKING BELOW 148
2021-12-22
BUYBACKS
Stock buybacks by corporate clients remain elevated, which is good news for stocks
APPLE
APPLE BOUNCED BACK AFTER TOUCHED THE UPPER TRENDLINE OF THE RISING CHANNEL , BUT I THINK ITS A TRASITORY BOUNCE AND THE SIDEWAYS MOVEMENT PROBABLY IS THE DOMINANT UNTIL BREAKOUT THE HIGH OF $182
AND IF THAT‘S NOT THE CASE , THE RANGE OF 157--158 IS THE NEXT DOWNSIDE TARGET (CRUCIAL SUPPORT ZONE)
2021-12-21
CHINA‘S GOLD DEMAND
China gold demand has been increasing in the last few months. Historically gold follows the riches
CRUDE OIL
AS I SAID ON 29/11/2021(U CAN REVIEW THAT IPMORTANT POST), HOWERVER OIL IN BOUNCE PHASE MAY BE FORMING A TRIANGLE THEN ONE MORE PUSH DOWN TO COPLETE THE SECOND WAVE CORRECTION , AND WE HAVE A HEAH AND SHOULDERS COMPLEX HEADS . WHEN BE A VALID ONE ,IT CONFIRMS THE EALIER TARGET AT $45 AND COULD REACH TO $40
ANY WAY 40-50 RANGE DESERVE WACHING CAREFULLY, AND IF PRICE DOES NOT BREAK 62 THIS SCENARIO IS NAGATED
2021-12-20
DEFENSIVES vs CYCLICAL
Defensive Sectors (TR) VS. Cyclical Sectors (TR) - long-term cycle.
RETURNS
With the S&P 500 having reached the upper trend channel, is it reasonable for US equity investors to expect high returns in the coming years?
DOLLAR INDEX
DOLLAR IS FORMING A BEARISH BUTTERFLY PATTERN, COPMPLATION POINT AT 97.04 ,I DO THINK 96.75 LEVEL IS A SOLID RESISTANCE TO BREAKOUT. COINCIDED WITH DOLLAR REACHING OVERBOUGHT TERRITORY
2021-12-18
BITCOIN FUNDS
Are investors still hesitant to put new money into Bitcoin funds?
WORLD ARABIC LANGUAGE DAY
ON THE WORLD ARABIC LANGUAGE DAY WE SURVEY SOME FACTS ABOUT ARABIC LANGUAGE LIKE.
- THERE ARE HALF A BILION PEOPLE WHO SPEAK ARABIC AROUND THE WORLD AND THEY MAK UP 6.6% OF THE WORLD POPULATION
- MOST WORDS IN THE ARAEBIC LANGUAGE ARE DERIVED FROM A ROOT, THERE ARE BTWEEN5000 AND 6500 LEXICAL ROOTS IN ARABIC,AND THE NUMBER OF WORDS CONTAINED IN ARABIC LANGUAGE IS ABOUT 12 MILLION WORDS
- THERE ARE ABOUT 26 COUNTRIES THAT CLAIM ARABIC AS AN OFFICIAL OR CO OFFICIAL LANGUAGE
- ARABIC IS THE ONLY LANGUAGE IS WRITTEN FROM RIGHT TO LEFT
- ITS THE 6th LARGEST LANGUAGE IN THE WORLD
- FINALLY ITS THE NATIVE LANGUAGE OF THE HOLLY QURAN OF MUSLIMS, AND MUSLIM‘S PRAYER IS NOT VALID UNLESS THE QURAN IS RECITED IN ARABIC
2021-12-17
EARNINGS
Morgan Stanley still expects S&P 500 earnings per share of $227 in 2022 and $245 in 2023
REAL ESTATE SECTOR
REAL ESTATE SECTOR HAS BEEN FORMING A DISTINCT BEARISH CRAB PATTERN COMPLATES AT THE 52.5 LEVEL
2021-12-16
KING DOLLAR
IN THE NAME OF ALLAH THE MOST GRACIOUS THE MOST MERCIFUL
The dollar is poised for its biggest annual gain in six years. Investors are betting the currency will continue to strengthen, with positioning in the currency turning the most bullish since 2015
BULL MARKET IN BASE METALS IS ALREADY UNDERWAY
NOTICE THE POSITIVE CORRELATION BETWEEN COPPER&THE DB BASE METALS FUND, HOWEVER, THIS RELATIONSHIP TELLS US A MASSIVE BULL MARKET IS ALREARDY UNDERWAY, WHICH MEANS THE BASE METALS LIKE COPPER ,NICKEL,ALUMIMNUM, AND ZINK ARE LIKELY WILL RISE
WE ANTICIPATED THE PRICES OF BASE METALS TO RISE BASED ON AN ELLIOTT CONTRACTING TRAINGLE IN BULL MARKET AND THE SHARP MOVE IN SOME TIMES THAT FOLLOWING THE TRIANGLE AND MAKE A NEW RECORD HIGH
2021-12-15
HIGH OPTION VOLUME STOCKS
Stocks with high options trading volume (often dominated by retail investors) have underperformed sharply this month
GBP vs USD
STERLING HAS BEEN IN DOWNTREN ON THE MEDIUM TERM ,NOTICE THAT PRICE BELOW THE 50MAAND 200MA, STOP LOSS FOR LONG TERM INVESTORE WAS BELOW 1.3670
STERLING HAVE A ROOM TO MORE DECLINE MAY BE TO 1.28 OR 1.25
2021-12-14
INTEREST RATES
Many central banks around the world are raising interest rates
USD vs TRY
WHT IS HAPPINING FOR TURISK LIRA?1
TURKEY‘S LIRA CRASHED TO A RECORD LOW OF 14.68 ON MONDAY, IM SURPRISING ABOUT THE INSANE MONETARY POICY THAT TURKY IS CURRENTLY OPEATING UNDER. HOW THE CENTRAL BANK CUTS RAT AMID RISING DOUBLE DIGIT INFLATION (NEAR 20%,) SINCE YEAR AGO LIRA HAS BEEN TRADING AT ROUGHLY 7.5 TO THE GREENBACK
I DO THINK WHEN WE LOOK AT THE CHART, THE PARPOLIC MOVE IS THE THIRD OF THIRD WITH THE HIGHEST MOMENTUM EVER , SUGGESTS THE LIRA COULD PULLBACL IN A SMALL CORRECTION MAY BE TO 12 THEN ANOTHER POTENTIAL UPSIDE MOVE TO 16
2021-12-13
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX
Despite signs of a pick-up in US GDP growth in Q4, consumers are still downbeat about the economic situation
SENTIMENT
The Fear & Greed Index stands at 38, signaling fear in the US stock market
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ETH vs USD
ETHEREUM SEEMS TO BE FORMING A TRIABGLE , AND AFTER REACHING TO 4865 DECLINIG AS WAVE C OF TRAINGLE IN PLAY, WHEN IT COMPLETES AROUND 2900 ANOTHER PUSH UP AND FINALLY PUSH DOWN TO COMPLETE THE TRAINGLE THEN POST TRIANGLE MOVE IS SHARP AND MAKE A NEW ALL TIME HIGH ABOVE 4800
2021-12-11
GLOBAL GROWTH
IN THE NAME OF ALLAH THE MOST GRACIOUS THE MOST MERCIFUL
The global economy is expected to continue its recovery despite the coronavirus pandemic and supply chain challenges
FED RATE HIKE
Why investors should not worry too much about the first Fed rate hike? Historically, the S&P 500 Index tends to rise the year before the first Fed rate hike
2021-12-10
S&P 500 ( NUMBER OF ATH 1929-2021 )
S&P 500 closes at an all-time high for the 67th time this year. Only 1995 has had more all-time highs in a single calendar year
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