So far, equity investors are not greedy
2022-01-31
SENTIMENT
So far, equity investors are not greedy
DAX INDEX
WACH CAREFULLU 14800 LEVEL IN GERMANY INDEX(DAX) IF THIS LEVEL BREAKSDOWN THE DOUBLE TOP IS CONFIRMED AS BEING AS VALID, TO DOWNSIDE TARGET ROUGHLY AT 13500, ALSO THIS DOUBLE TOP MIGHT BE A PART OF HEAD AND SHLOULDERS COMPLEX HEADS
2022-01-29
US DEBT /GDP
When sovereign debt/GDP gets to very high levels, various forms of financial repression are used and the yields on those sovereign debt instruments fail to keep up with price inflation
ENERGY vs SP&500
The relative price performance of the energy sector to the S&P 500 is at the level of the Great Depression
STOXX EUROPE 600 INDEX
FROM PANDAMIC LOW STOXX EUROPE 600 ON THE DAILY CHART COMPLETED A FIVE WAVES UP RALLY AT495 CONFIRMED BY A BEARISH NORMAL DIVERGENCE ON RSI INDICATOR, A SUSTAINED DECLINE HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE AS WAVE (2) BUT IN MORE DETAILS THE FIRST LEG OF CORRECTIO STILL ON OPERATION , SPECIFICALLY IN FOURTH WAVE OF A (GRAY COLOR) LEG THAT MIGHT BE A SIDE MOVE LIKE A TRIANGLE THEN ONE MORE PUSH LOWER AS A FIFTH WAVE TO COMPLETE THE FIRST LEG OF CORRECTON, THEN A REBPUND IN THREE MOVES AS WAVE B AND EVENTUAL WAVE C DOWN IS ANTICIPATTED TO HIT 380 LEVEL OR 355 TO COM[LETE THE INTERMEDIATE WAVE (2) RED COLOR)
2022-01-28
GDP
The US economy grew at 6.9% annual rate in Q4 2021
EQUITY POSITIONING
Systematic equity positioning is in the 19th percentile
RECESSION
The probability of US recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, decreased to 4.7% in January
2022-01-27
GROWTH vs VALUE
If inflation stays elevated, should investors continue to look towards value stocks?
RISK APPETITE INDICATOR
The risk appetite indicator remains negative, as investors expect growth to slowdown
REAL YIELDS vs NASDAQ
THE NAME OF ALLAH THE MOST GRACIOUS THE MOST MERCIFUL
The Nasdaq's performance today was surprisingly good in light of the further rise in real bond yieldsIN
RATE HIKES
Here is a look at rate hikes by the Federal Reserve that are fully priced into the market currently. Will the Fed’s balance sheet runoff start this summer?
2022-01-26
BUYBACKS
Stock buybacks by corporate clients are still elevated, which is good news for stocks
SPX
IN THE NAME OF ALLAH THE MOST GRACIOUS THE MOST MERCIFUL
Now less than 50% of SPX names remaining above their 200-day moving average. Last two times that occurred? June 2020 and Feb 2020
FED RATE HIKES
Will the Fed hike rates four times in 2022?
2022-01-25
DOLLAR
Will the US dollar continue to rise before the Fed's first rate hike?
GOLD vs REAL INTEREST RATES
Gold has performed relatively well in the past couple of weeks even as real interest rates have jumped
ARKK INNOVATION
ARKK ETF, SEEMS THAT THE COORECTION FINISHED AT $ $65
SOME SUBJECTIVE BLOSTER THAT APPEAR ON THE CHART
PLZ, REVIEW THE POST ON 7/12/2021
2022-01-24
DIFFERENT ASSET CLASSES
Bitcoin - Growth/Value - Defensives/Cyclicals ..... hmmm..
NDX 100
FROM THE MARCH 2020 LOW, I DO THINK NASDAQ 100 HAS COMPLETED THE FOURTH WAVE ON THE MINOR DGREE AT 13700,THEN ONE MORE PUSH HIGHER TO MAKE A NEW RECORD HIGH ABOVE 16765
2022-01-22
2022-01-21
FAAMG STOCKS
FAAMG (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, and Google) market cap exceeds $10 trillion and is equivalent to the 3rd largest GDP in world
LONG TERM INFLATION EXPECTATIONS
Long-term inflation expectations have fallen significantly over the past few weeks, to the lowest levels going back to March 2021, at least according to 5-year, 5-year forward breakeven rates
DOW FRACTAL LAST 20 YEARS
HOW FAILIAR THIS IS
2022-01-20
YIELD CURVE
IN THE NAME OF ALLAH THE MOST GRACIIOUS THE MOST MERCIFUL
Historically, an inverted yield curve has been an excellent predicator of economic recessions in the US
EURO
Euro still shrugging of yield differentials
CRUDE OIL
AFTER CRUDE OIL COPMPLETED FIVE WAVES UP AT $84.95 AS A PRIMARY WAVE ONE(CIRCLE RED) THEN CORRECTION HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE AS WAVE TWO, BUT WAVE TWO‘S CORRECTION CAME IN IRREGULAR FLAT(ABC CORRECTION, WHICH WAVE B SURPASS WAVE A. AND MOST LIKELY WAVE C BREAKDOWN WAVE (A) LOW) SO CURNTELY WAVE B COULD BE REACH TO $90 OR $94AND IT IS HIGLY PROBABLE THAT HIT $99
THIS IS THE PRIMARY COUNT WE‘RE ADOPTING
2022-01-19
BIGGEST TAIL RISK
FMS investors see hawkish central bank rate hikes as the biggest "tail risk"
OIL PRICES
Oil prices at a fresh post-pandemic high, with even WTI now above $85
US10y YIELD
IN THE NAME OF ALLAH THE MOST GRACIOUS THE MOST MERCIFUL
US 10Y YIELD HAS BEEN FORMING A DISTINCT BEARISH DEEP CRAB PATTERN , WHICH IS COMPLETE AT 2.17% AND MAY EXTEND TO 2.34% BECAUSE THE EXTREME MOVE OF COMPLETION POINT OF THE DEEP CRAB PATTERN (NOT ONLY 1.618 XA BUT MAY BE 1.92 XA)
2022-01-18
FED FUND RATE
Should investors prepare for more tightening than expected?
US EQUITIES
More than 220 U.S.-listed companies with market caps above $10 billion are down at least 20% from highs
While some have bounced from their lows, many remain in bear-market territory
2022-01-17
LARGEST COMPANY IN THE S&P 500 IN EACH YEAR
oldman Sachs | Largest company in the S&P 500 in each year
S&P CORRECTION PROBABILITY
S&P Correction Probability
ALPHABET GOOGLE
DO U EXPECT THE COMPLEX HEAD AND SHOULDERS PATTERN TO COMPLETE, OR ALPHABET CONTINUE MOVING SIDEWAYS
NOTICE, IF THE PATTERN COMPLETES, THE DOWNWARD TARGET WILL AT
2022-01-15
US NET PROFIT MARGINS
What will be interesting to see as we get into earning season is whether companies will be able to keep this strong profit margins ie their ability to successfully pass on higher input prices and wages to consumers
BUYBACKS
Buybacks are 40% of the S&P 500’s total return since 2011.
2022-01-14
VALUE/GROWTH
Value / Growth --- Similarities to ~ 2000 ...
2022-01-13
STOCKS SECTOR ROTATION vs BUSINESS CYCLE
2022 is going to be a tough year for retail traders and investors that cut their teeth in the market of 2020.
But that doesn't mean it's time to throw in the towel. Quite the opposite.
It means it's time to learn new full cycle trading and investing skills and start benefiting!
VALUATION
Is the US stock market expensive today? Well, the CAPE ratio is just the second highest in over 100 years
FED ASSETS /GDP
The ratio of Fed assets to U.S. GDP could drop to its pre-Covid level by the end of 2025: DB analysts. Under this projection, the balance sheet would shrink by $560 billion this year and $1 trillion in 2023.
2022-01-12
BUYBACKS
IN THE NAME OF ALLAH THE MOST GRACIOUS THE MOST MERCIFUL
Stock buybacks by corporate clients are still elevated, which is good news for stocks
US INFLATION
US inflation rate jumped 7% in December YoY, the 3rd consecutive month >6% & the biggest annual increase since Jun1982, while Core CPI, which excludes food and energy and is the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, rose 5.5% YoY
GBP vs USD
STERLING LOOKS DOING WELL AFTER BREAKOUT THE MEDIUM TERM CHANNEL, BUT NEEDS TO REMAIN ABOVE 1.3836 TO SAY THAT THE REBOUND IS NOT A COUNTER TREND, IF SO....THE NEXT STOOPS FOR THE BULL TRAIN ARE 1.3885, 1.4000 ON THE WAY TO THE OLD PEAK AT 1.4250
2022-01-11
GDP
Goldman Sachs expects US GDP to grow by 3.5% this year and 2.2% in 2023
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