The probability of a 50 bps increase in March has dropped significantly since the start of the invasion
Eyes on the next CPI print now
2022-02-28
2022-02-25
RISK APPETITE INDICATOR
The risk appetite indicator is very negative, which is contrarian bullish
GOLD
FINALLY GOLD PRICES WERE ABLE TO BREAK OUT OTH SIDEWAYS RANGE AND COMLETED THE TRIANGLE AS WAS PREVIOUSELY EXPECTED, AND THE EW COUNT ON THE CHART WAS MORE LIKELY BY BREACHING THE LEVELS OF 1877$ THEN 1909$
SO THE NEARTERM UPSIDE TARGET NOT ONLT THE OLD PEAK AT 2075$ BUT THE FURTHER TARGET COULD HIT 2200 OR MAY EXTEND TO 2300-2400 ZONE REGARDLESS ANY GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS
BEAR IN MIND TO PUT THE STOP LOSS LIMIT AT 1877$ FOR THE SHORT TIME INVESTORS
AND IF PRICES BREAKDOWN 1680$ THE LONGTREM INVESTORS CALL THE STOP LOSS ORDER
2022-02-24
GOLD OR BITCOIN
Safe haven: Gold or Bitcoin?
We found out today.
US BONDS
Is it time to be bullish on US Treasury bonds?
CRUDE OIL
CRUDE OILE HAS FORMED A BERAISH CRAB PATTERN , THE COMPLETION POINT OF THE PATTERN WAS 99.5 $, BUT PRICE COULD EXTEND TO 106 $ AS WE SPOKE EARLIER ABOUT THE EXTREMITY OF THIS STURUCTURE TYPE (CRAB, DEEP CRAB), SO IT IS COMMOMN TO OVSERVE EXTREM PRICE ACTION AS THE PATTERN COMPLETES , SO WE INCLUDE THE 1.902 XA MEASURE AS ADDITIONAL TOLERANCE LIMIT BEYOND THE1.618 XA
2022-02-23
GOLD
Speculators have increased their net long positions in the gold futures markets
GLOBAL MONEY SUPPLY
It's unprecedented in modern times for the amount of money sloshing around the global economy and financial system to have surged 25% over two years
RECESSION
Historically, an inverted yield curve has been an excellent predictor of recessions in the US
SP500
IN THE NAME OF ALLAH THE MOST GRACIOUS THE MOST MERCIFUL
SP 500 IS FORMING HEAD AND SHOULDERS TOP , WATCH CAREFULLY THE VALIDITIY OF THIS PATTERN, WHEN PRICE CLOSES BELOW 4300,...IF SO
EXPECT THE DOWNSIDE TARGET TO HIT 3750
2022-02-22
NUMBER OF STOCKS WITH MACD BUY SIGNAL
HALF of Nasdaq Stocks have triggered Buy signals – one of the strongest spikes of all time.
Spikes of this magnitude led to historic rallies in Stocks.
A textbook Bull Market response after a sentiment capitulation – follow the Trend
EPS
Is it time to worry? The ISM Manufacturing Index is highly correlated with S&P 500 earnings growth
LIQUIDITY
S&P 500 E-mini futures market liquidity remains below average levels
2022-02-21
GOLD
For now I'm ignoring these futures oscillations due to various Ukraine rumours.
On the topic of gold, I'm not bullish at these levels, recent outperformance notwithstanding
VIX
IN THE NAME OF ALLAH THE MOST GRACIOUS THE MOST MERCIFUL
EUROZONE STOCKS
Eurozone stocks are down almost 10% from their high in early January
2022-02-19
BITCOIN GOLD CORRELATION
Bitcoin-gold correlation has been negative recently amid the Ukraine/Russia crisis
FED FUNDS RATE
Should investors expect the federal funds rate to be at 2.6% by the end of 2024?
YIELD CURVE
The yield curve flattens when PMIs decline. Every PMI model we have says we're at the start of a 12-15m downturn. There is your forecast for the next 12m. Flatter yield curve consistent with risk-off markets.
2022-02-18
SENTIMENT
IN THE NAME OF ALLAH THE MOST GRACIOUS THE MOST MERCIFUL
Why are investors so bearish? Looking at the indexes, losses have been pretty mild.
But a near-majority of the stocks many investors are concentrated in have been cut in half.
And for one of the rare times in ~50 years, both stocks AND bonds are pulling back at the same time
ARKK ETF
Ark Invest's flagship ARKK ETF is underperforming the Nasdaq 100 QQQ since its 2014 inception
OIL
IN THE NAME OF ALLAH THE MOST GRACIOUS THE MOST MERCIFUL
Could oil prices cause the next recession
2022-02-16
BITCOIN
Bitcoin is increasingly trading in tandem with stocks.
US RETAIL SALES
US retail sales rose 3.8% in January, almost double the growth expected
VIX
VIX is rising in the big picture context.
But first it is likely to retest to 20-21 before spiking up again.
Look for this taller spike in March
2022-02-15
GOLD
IN THE NAME OF ALLAH THE MOST GRACIOUS THE MOST MERCIFUL
Speculators have increased their net long positions in the gold futures markets
FAANG+M INDEX
Fibonacci retracements can be great gauges of support during corrections
For the FAANG+M Index (FB, AMZN, AAPL, NFLX, GOOGL, ,MSFT), a decisive breakdown below the 38.2% retracement of 2020-2021 uptrend would target the 61.8% retracement
SPX
Currently 45% of SPX names remain above their 200-day moving average. Going back to 2009, the major corrections have been marked by extended time below the 50% level for this indicator. Key chart to watch here.
2022-02-12
2022-02-11
PERFORMANCE
Companies that have announced a stock split tend to outperform the S&P 500 over the next 12 months
BONDS
Will global 10-year sovereign bond yields continue to rise?
GBP vs USD
POUND STERLING IS CONFIRMING HEAD AND SHLUOLDERS BOTTOM , IF PRICE CAN CLOSE ABOVE ROUGHLY 1.3710 THE UPSIDE TARGET WILL NE AT 1.4315
2022-02-10
GLOBAL EQUITY VALUATION
Even after the January correction USA equity valuations still basically double that of everyone else
US INFLATION
Whatever the CPI number is today inflation is peaking. Base effects will impact sharply in the coming months.
Global Inflation Rates.
Global Inflation Rates.
2022-02-09
GOLD
Gold still shrugging off the rise in real yields so far this year
FACEBOOK LOKKS LIKE FINISHED THE CORRECTION AS INTERMEDIATE WAVE TWO (2) AS A DOUBLE ZIGZAG (W-X-Y)
WACH CAREFULLY THE GAP , IF PRICE CLOSE IT , DURING THIS REBOUND IT BLOSTERS , THIS COUNT, BUT IF NOT THAT THE CASE , WE ARE IN IMPLUSIVE MANNER, SPECIFICALLY IN THIRD WAVE AND THE CORRECTION WILL DROP PRICED MORE DEEPER
2022-02-08
TECH STCOKS
What impact will quantitative tightening have on the tech bull market?
RETURN
Small cap stocks tend to underperfom the S&P 500 when growth slows
NIKKIE 225 INDEX
NIKKIE 225 INDEX HAS COMLETED A RECTANGEL TOP, AS WE KNOW THE UPWARD BREAKOUT IS 63% OF THE TIME , BUT HERE THE DOWNWARD BREAKOUT OCCURED
NOTICE THAT THE PARTIAL RISE WAS A GOOD SIGN FOR PRDICTING THE DOWNBREAKOUT ,HOWEVER THE DOWN WARD TARGET COULD HIT 23550
2022-02-07
SMALL BUSINESS WAGE
Still some upward pressure on wages to come
GLOBAL INFLATION
Global inflation trends: hotter and hotter
APPLE vs ENERGY STOCKS
This is simply not normal.
Apple’s market cap is 40% larger than the entire energy sector.
Don’t tell me fundamentals justify this disparity.
Energy stocks generate almost 50% more in annual FCF than Apple.
Wait until oil prices break out above $100/bbl.
2022-02-05
NUMBER OF FED HIKE IN MARCH
50 bps hike would leave a mark
US INFLATION
nflation momentum in the indicator i track. but historically its taken at least a few months before it shows up in y/y core CPI momentum
DOLLAR
Will global US dollar reserves continue to decrease over time?
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