The commodity price shock on consumers is not yet at the level of the 1970s
2022-03-31
CRUDE OIL
CRUDE OIL COMPLETED THE FIVE WAVES UP AS WAVE ONE ON THE HIGH DEGREE(PRIMARY DEGREE) THEN FALLING DOWN BELOW $100 TO MAKE THE FIRST LEG OF CORRECTION AS WAVE A OR ALTERNATIVELY WAVE ONE OF A OF WAVE 2,HOWEVER OIL IN A REBOUND PHASE THAT MAY BE CONSLIDATING SIDEWAYS AS A TRIANGLE , OR IT COMPLETED AT $116(BREAKDOWN 92 A BIG CLUE THAT WAVE B IS IN PLACE) THEN ONE MORE PUSH DOWN TO COMPLETE WAVE C OF WAVE 2 OR MORE SELLING PRESSURE AHEAD AS WAVE THREE OF A OF WAVE 2
SO WE ARE SHOWING THE PICTURE BEFORE SOME SAYIN THE BIDEN‘S ADMINISTRATION ANNOUNCED A RECORD RELEASE OF 1.0 MILLION BARRELS PER DAY FROM THE STRATEGIC PETROLEUM RESERVE OVER THE NEXT SIX MONTHS AND THIS IS WILL PULL CRUDE PRICES DOWN
NOTICE, THE DOWNSIDE TARGET COULD HIT $82 OR MAY EXTEND TO 71 OR 63
BUT IF CRUDE OIL JUST ONLY IN THE FIRST LEG OF CORRECTION ANTICIPATE MORE DECLINE AHEAD IN RANGE OF 67-55
RUSSIAN RUBLE vs USD
PUTIN: RUSSIA TO HALT GAS CONTRACTS IF BUYERS DON'T PAY RUBLES
2022-03-30
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
A wide gap between the “present situation” and “expectations” subindices of the Conference Board’s confidence indicator often precedes US economic downturns.
VALUE vs GROWTH
Growth stocks not buying 8 hikes this year
2022-03-29
US DOLLAR INDEX
a lot of implications for investors in this one
BITCOIN
Bitcoin made a BULLISH cross on the weekly MACD
REAL FED FUNDS RATE
Stocks keep rallying because the Fed is still way behind the curve when it comes to inflation, allowing the economy to run hot: Credit Suisse's Jon Golub. "Not only is the rate too low today, but it will likely be too low even after the Fed completes its projected rate hikes.
2022-03-28
S&P 500 VALUATIONS
S&P500 Valuations: the good news is that some of the steam has come out of frothy valuations, the bad news is that relative value is fading fast
GOLD MINERS vs S&P 500
support keeps holding down there in Gold Miners on a relative basis
FINANCIAL STRESS
How long will the BofA global financial stress indicator remain high?
2022-03-26
S&P 500
Short-term investor overreactions tend to create opportunities in US stocks
EARNINGS
Morgan Stanley still expects S&P 500 earnings per share of $227 in 2022 and $245 in 2023
COMMODITIES
How long can the commodities rally last?
2022-03-25
SEASONALITY
Seasonality continues to predict SPX's turn points with eerie precision: Late Feb low, early March bottoming process, mid-March lift off. What's next? If it continues: After some late March chop, April is a trend month & most bullish of the year, green 80% of the last 20 years
EGYPT‘S POUND
We flagged a 15% overvaluation of Egypt's Pound for the past year. This week's devaluation was about 15%, so is overvaluation over? Our 15% overvaluation number pre-dates Russia's invasion of Ukraine & the recent sharp rise in wheat prices. The Pound (pink) has further to fall.
RISK APPETITE INDICATOR
Risk appetite rebounded over the last few days with the rally, but still not back to exuberant yet. However, positioning remains on the lighter side. With quarter-end rebalancing coming next week, the makret could surprise to the upside
GOLD/ENERGY
GOLD/ENERGY IS NOW RESTING ON THE 15 YHEAR UP TREND, AS LONG AS GOLD DECLIN IN 5 WAVES DOWN SO ANTICEPATE 3 WAVES UP SO REBOUND FROM THIS UPTREND WILL OCCURE ,BUT THEN MOST LIKELY AFTER REBOUND GOLDWILL BREAKDOWN THE UPTREND ACCORDING TO EWP 5-3-5 ZIGZAG PATTERN
2022-03-24
GLOBAL GDP
Goldman Sachs has significantly lowered its global GDP forecast for 2022
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
Consumer confidence is falling of a cliff
BITCOIN
Bitcoin is increasingly correlated with meme stocks.
2022-03-23
CPI COMPONENTS RISING FASTER 1% M-O-M
Nearly half of all CPI components are now rising faster than 1% month-over-month
SENTIMENT
Is Bearish Sentiment Really a Bullish Sign?
BULL MARKET
The current bull market is the fastest bull market ever to double
2022-03-22
HIGH YIELD CORP vs EQUITIES
High Yield is usually a good indicator for risk on/risk off and moves in tandem with equities. In fact, it often leads the move.
We have interesting divergence now though between HYG (in blue) and the SPX
GLOBAL EPS
IN THE NAME OF ALLAH THE MOST GRACIOUS THE MOST MERCIFUL
Global EPS growth is expected to decelerate sharply
ERO/USD
Goldman Sachs remains bullish on EUR/USD
2022-03-21
YIELD CURVE
Can investors expect a steepening yield curve as a recession hedge
CYCLE INDICATOR
The Morgan Stanley's US cycle indicator suggests similarities to 2004-05
2022-03-19
EARNINGS
Morgan Stanley still expects S&P 500 earnings per share of $227 in 2022 and $245 in 2023
PURE VALUE/PURE GROWTH RATIO
The Pure Value / Pure Growth ratio has an 84% correlation to 10-year Treasury yields since 2007. If long-term rates continue to rise this year as the Fed tightens policy, then Value may be poised to continue to outperform Growth this year
MARKET CYCLE
There is always a market cycle - you can see it playing out in factor performance since March 2020. Last week we told investors that we’re heading into Phase 4 - the Growth phase. Value leadership will fade with the coming EPS downgrade cycle ahead as the world slows
2022-03-18
SEASONALITY
All this chart tells you is what the average for the past TWENTY years HAS BEEN. It has no predictive value whatsoever
A quick history of fed (qe )
1. March 2009: QE1 ($300 bn)
2. November 2010: QE2 ($600 bn)
3. September 2012: QE3 ($790 bn)
4. March 2020: COVID QE ($3200 bn)
SENTIMENT
The Fear & Greed Index stands at 26, signaling fear in the US stock market
US DOLLAR
US DOLLAR SINCE ITS REBOUND WALK IN UP SLOPING CHANNEL BUT LATELY REACHED THE UPPER TRENDLINE OF THE CHANNEL AND FORMED A SMMAL DOUBLE TOP, STILL NOT A VALID ONE YET BUT IT IS VERY STRANGE THAT DESPITE FED HAWWKISH US DOLLAR AND 10Y YIELDS, ESPECIALLY DOLLAR HAS BEEN FALLING FAST
MAY BE INVESTORS EXPECTED RATE HIKE 50 BPS
ACCORDIND TO FOMC SITE MORE THAN 50% WERE EXPECTED FED WILL HIKE RATE 50 BPS
2022-03-17
INFLATION
I don't get why the Fed raises rates by 0.25% when inflation is 8%
FED FUNDS RATE
Should investors expect the federal funds rate to be at 2% in January 2023?
RUSSELL 2000
RUSSELL 2000 WAS IN UP SLOPING CHANNEL ,AND U HAD TO SELL WHEN PRICE BREAKOUT WAS DOWNWARD TO DOWNSIDE TARGET ROUGHLY 1650
2022-03-16
BEAR MARKET
Most FMS investors expect that global equity markets will experience a bear market this year
BITCOIN
Will Bitcoin's share of the total crypto market cap continue to fall?
DAX
DAX FORMED A COMPLEX HEADS AND SHOULDERS ,WAS A VALID ONE AFTER PRICE BREAKDOWN 14800TO DOWNSIDE TARGET AT 13500 I DO THIINF NEAR DOUBE TARGET WAS ACHIEVED AND NOW, PRICES IN THE PULLBACK ON THE BROKEN NECKLINE
2022-03-15
ISM INDEX
Will the US ISM index drop below 50 in 2022Q2 ?
OIL
Crude Oil futures fall back below 100 a barrel, a decline of 25% (-$32/barrel) from their high a week ago.
S&P 500
S&P 500 HAS BROKEN DOWN THE MA 200 AT4465 AFTER FORMED A DISTNICT HEAD AND SHOULDERS TOP ,THE PATTERN HAS COMPLETED BELOW 4200AND SHOULD CONTINUE DOWN TO ACHIEVE ITS TARGET AT 3600, BUT CLOSING ABOVE 4600 ITS THE BEGINNING OF THE FALUIRE OF THE HEAD AND SHOULDERS PATTERN AND COMPLETE WHEN PRICES CLOSE AOVE THE HEAD AT 4800
2022-03-14
ARKK
IN THE NAME OF ALLAH THE MOST GRACIOUS THE MOST MERCIFULARKK is now at the spot. Big DeMARK counts coming in. Email/post going out shortly
SENTIMENT
The Fear & Greed Index stands at 14, signaling extreme fear in the US stock market
INFLATION
High inflation typically leads to a slow down in economic activity because it starts killing demand. Commodity at these levels is already doing Jerome Powell’s job
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