EUROPE , SENTIMENT vs STOCKS

IN THE NAME OF ALLAH THE MOST GRACIOUS THE MOST MERCIFUL

European Equities — Sentiment vs Stocks

RECESSION

IN THE NAME OF ALLAH THE MOST GRACIOUS THE MOST MERCIFUL

Should investors expect the possibility of a significant weakening in the housing sector this year?

REAL RATES

IN THE NAME OF ALLAH THE MOST GRACIOUS THE MOST MERCIFUL

Real rates are now back to where they were just before covid, but still lower than where they were in late 2018 - probably still room for them to move higher given the current inflation backdrop, reducing scope for major equity upside

APPLE

IN THE NAME OF ALLAH THE MOST GRACIOUS THE MOST MERCIFUL

IT SEEMS  CORRECTION IN APPLE STOCK HAS FINIISHED AS WAVE FOUR ,CLOSE ABOVE150 BOLSTERS THIS PROBABILITY THEN BREAK ABOVE 180 CONFIRMS THAT THE CORRECTIONIS IS OVER WITHOUT A DOUBT AND CROSSOVER THE OLD PEAK AT 182  AT HAND THEN APPLE HAS A ROOM TO HIT UPSIDE TARGET ROUGHLY AT 217

EUR vs USD

IN THE NAME OF ALLAH THE MOST GRACIOUS THE MOST MERCIFUL

U MAY NOT BE SURPRISED THAT THE EURO DROPS DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE DOLLAR, BUT WHAT IS REMARKABLE IS THAT THE LOWER THE EURO, THE WEAKER THE MOMENTUM OF THE RECOVERY

?SO.... I WONDER HOW MUCH HIGHER MIGHT EURO GO 

TECH FLOWS

IN THE NAME OF ALLAH THE MOST GRACIOUS THE MOST MERCIFUL

Will investors' love of tech stocks continue?

US 10yr YIELDS

IN THE NAME OF ALLAH THE MOST GRACIOUS THE MOST MERCIFUL

could it be?

CRUDE OIL

IN THE NAME OF ALLAH THE MOST GRACIOUS THE MOST MERCIFUL

Crude Oil swings between supply disruptions and risks of economic slowdowns.

Inflation and Investable Assets

IN THE NAME OF ALLAH THE MOST GRACIOUS THE MOST MERCIFUL

Inflation and Investable Assets

SENTIMENT

IN THE NAME OF ALLAH THE MOST GRACIOUS THE MOST MERCIFUL

The Fear & Greed Index stands at 12, signaling extreme fear in the US stock market

S&P 500

IN THE NAME OF ALLAH THE MOST GRACIOUS THE MOST MERCIFUL

US equity investors should worry when the Fed stops raising or cuts rates

BULL MARKET

IN THE NAME OF ALLAH THE MOST GRACIOUS THE MOST MERCIFUL

The secular bull market could last into 2027, as 2020 marked a 7-year "halftime" low, similar to 1987 and 1957

DOLLAR

IN THE NAME OF ALLAH THE MOST GRACIOUS THE MOST MERCIFUL

Will the US dollar peak at this stage of the Fed's hiking cycle

VIX

IN THE NAME OF ALLAH THE MOST GRACIOUS THE MOST MERCIFUL

VIX has decoupled from the S&P 500, which could indicate that we are not at the “capitulation” point yet

COMMODITIES

IN THE NAME OF ALLAH THE MOST GRACIOUS THE MOST MERCIFUL

Is the price of lithium on the way to the moon?

CRUDE OIL

IN THE NAME OF ALLAH THE MOST GRACIOUS THE MOST MERCIFUL

CRUDE OIL ON TRACK , PLZ WACH WHAT WE DID SAY ON 3/31/2022S

https://stockcharts-home.blogspot.com/2022/03/crude-oil_31.html

BUT KEEP YOR CLOSE EYE ON PRICES MOVE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKS ESPECIAPPLY, IF THE ALTERNATIVE SECNARIO IS IN PLAY. ALSO IF MY COUNT IS CORRECT AND WAVE B  IS A TRIANGLE ANTICIPATE THE POST TRAINGLE THRUST (WAVE C HERE) COULD REACH TO 138% OR 161.8% OF WAVE A. SO TAKE THE $58, $49 IN MIND ,  THE PRIMARY OBJECTIVE ROUGHLY $72 (BASED ON THE COMMON RELATION THAT WAVE(A) = WAVE(C) IN ZIGZAG PATTERN CORRECTION IN ELLIOTT WAVE PRINCIPLES )

EVENTUALLY WACH CLOSELY THE $115.79 LEVEL, PRICES ABOVE THIS LEVEL MEAN  OUR MAIN SCENRIO IS NEGATED, AND OIL IS CONSOLIDATING AS A TRIANGLE TO UPSIDE TARGET AROUND $135 OR MAY EXTEND TO THE RANGE OF $145-$150 IF THE POST TRIANGLE THRUST IS PROLONGED

 ON THE FLIP SIDE, BREAK BELOW $92.63 BOLSTERS THE MAIN SCENARIO OR THE ALTERNATE ONE

GLOBAL MARKET VALUE

 IN THE NAME OF ALLAH THE MOST GRACIOUS THE MOST MERCIFUL

 $35TRILLION in global market value erased since the beginning of the year. That's 14% of all global wealth. Includes the $1T losses in crypto. For reference - 2008 was a 19% decline.* * Doesn't include non-financial assets such as housing.

BTC vs USD

IN THE NAME OF ALLAH THE MOST GRACIOUS THE MOST MERCIFUL

BITCOIN ON THE MONTHLY RANGE IS  TRADING BELOW THE 12 MONTH MA, ALSO BITCOIN IS ON THE BACK FOOT TO BREAK DOWN 29350 AFTER CRACKED THE SOLID ZONE BETWEEN 36000-38000

BUT IF  BITCOIN BREAK DOWN  THE CRUCIAL SUPPORT 29350 WE MOVE TO THE BEARISH VIEW THAT IT MEANS FURTHER BEARISH TARGET  

DOW JONES

IN THE NAME OF ALLAH THE MOST GRACIOUS THE MOST MERCIFUL

I DO THINK DOW JONES INDEX COMPLETED THE  INTERMEDIATE WAVE ONE OF THE FIFTH PRIMARY WAVE, IF MY VIEW IS CORRECT ,WE HAVE A CORRECTION  WILL TAKE SOME TIME, MAY EXTEND TO  LATE JUNE, AND  THE SCOND WAVE USUALLY CORRECTS ABOUT 62% OF THE FIRST WAVE  ,SO ACCORRDING TO THIS PROBABILITY, FORECAST PRICES SETTLE DOWN IN RANGE OF 25300-27500

THE 10Y TREASURY YIELD

IN THE NAME OF ALLAH THE MOST GRACIOUS THE MOST MERCIFUL

AS WE MENTIONED EARLIER ON 4/9/2022 THE US  10Y YIELD WILL  HIT 3.25

https://stockcharts-home.blogspot.com/2022/04/us-10y-yield.html

I SEE THE US 10Y TREASURY YIELD ON TRACK, AND IF MY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT IS CORRECT WE CONFIRM  THIS TARGET AND GO FURTHER ABOUT POTENTIALLY REACH TO 3.6% OR MAY EXTEND TO 4%

I‘D LIKE TO REMIND MY FOLLOWERS  THAT DEUTSHCHE BANK ANALYSTS ECHOED THE , FORECAST OF A 5%TREASURY YIELD PEAK IN A NOTE IN LATE  APRIL, WHICH ALSO SAID AGGRESSIVE FED TIGHTENING COULD SEND THE ECONOMY INTO A SIGNIFICANT RECESSION NEXT YEAR

BEAR IN MIND, HISTORICALLY AT 2.5%-3% ON THE 10Y TREASURY YIELD , THE ECONOMY WILL BEGIN TO SUFFER THE EFFECTS OF REDUCED CONSUMPTION

NOTICE, THE 10Y TREASURY YIELD ON 5/2/2022 TOUCHED 3%  , FOR THE FIRST TIME  SINCE 2018

HAPPY EID UL FITR

IN THE NAME OF ALLAH THE MOST GRACIOUS THE MOST MERCIFUL

WISHING YA  ALL MUSLIMS  A VERY HAPPY EID UL FITR

EID MUBARK