BofA expects US GDP to grow at 6% annual rate in Q4 2021
2021-10-30
USD vs TRY
AS SHOWN AS IN THE SECOND CHART WE ANTICIPATED THE TURKISH LIRA WILL SUFFER A DECLINE AGAINST THE DOLLAR, AND THE UPSIDE TARGET IN RANGE . OF 9.35-9.65..... TARGET DONE
AND PRICE COULD EXTEND UP TO 10.15 AT 1.92 XA OF BEARISH CRAB PATTERN
IF U SHORT THE TRUKISH LIRA , PUT UR STOP LOSS A PENNY ABOVE 9.86
2021-10-29
REAL CONSUMER SPENDING
This time is different! After 2008, real consumer spending in the US never made it back to its pre-crisis trend, due to insufficient policy stimulus. Not true now. Real consumer spending as of Q3 2021 is already back to its pre-COVID trend. There is NO output gap in the US.
US INFLATION
Vanguard’s inflation key driver tracker shows mixed signals. Interestingly, fiscal policy could continue to run strong driving 2022 inflation above 3%, an outcome not currently predicted by markets.
S&P 500 SEASONALITY
S&P 500 seasonality shows that November is historically a good month in Presidential cycle year 1
2021-10-28
RETURNS
The current S&P 500 valuation suggests that equity investors should expect -0.5%/year over the next 10 years
HOMES PRICE ABOVE 500K
The percentage of new homes above $500k is surging.
2021-10-27
CRB COMOMDITY INDEX
IN THE NAME OF ALLAH THE MOST GRACIOUS THE MOST MERCIFUL
THE CRB INDEX REPRESNTS A BASKET OF COMMODITIES AS IT IS FORMALLY IS COMPRISED OF 19 COMMODITIES ISSUED IN THE SECOND PICTURE. THE 19 COMPONENTS EACH CARY A DIFFERENT WEIGHT. CRUDE OIL BEING THE HEAVIEST (23%) , THAT CLARIFY WHY OIL AND CRB INDEX WERE AT ALL TIME HIGHS IN JULY 2008. THE FIRST CHART WE‘RE LOOKING AT IS A LONGER TERM VIEW OF THE CRB INDEX THROUGH THE EWP PERSPECTIVE(A LITTLE MORE THAN 90 YEARS, SINCE 1930 ). THIS VIEW SUGGESTS THAT THE CRB INDEX PEAKED IN JULY 2008 AT 474 AS A SUPERCYCLE WAVE ONE THEN , THE MASSIVE DECLINE WAS A SUPERCYCLE 2 COMPLETED AT MARCH LOWS 2020 AT 101. SO THE THIRD WAVE AS KNOWN IS THE MOST POEWERFULL WAVE IS IN PROGESSING , AND SHOULD EXTEND PRICES HIGHER ABOVE THE OLD PEAK 474. THE RECENT RALLY IN FIVE WAVES UP WITH THE BULLISH DIVERGENCE ARE CONFIRMED THAT THE LOW IS IN PLACE. STUDY OF CRB INDEX TELL US A LOT ABOUT GLOBAL DEMAND AND CAN HELP US MAKE DECISIONS IN OUR EVERY DAY TRADING. NOT ONLY THAT, AS LONG AS CRB INDEX REMAINS ELEVATED INFLATION IS NOT GOING AWAY ANYTIME SOON , THAT WILL DEFINITELY AFFECT BASIC NECESSITIES (LIKE OIL, NATGAS,CORN....) AND PRIME COMMODITIES(LIKE COTTON, SUGAR, WHEAT, COPPER,....) (INFLATIONARY PRESSURES)
NOTE: I ALWAYS SAY , THAT ANY DIVERGENCE WETHER A NORMAL DIVERGENCE OR REVERSE DIVERGENCE NEEDS TO BE CONFIRMED IN ONE OF THE WAYS I MENTIONED EARLIER, HERE A NORMAL BULLISH DIVERGENCE WAS CONFIRMED BY CLOSING THE 40-WEEK MOVING AVERAGE
2021-10-26
COMMODITIES
Are commodity prices on the way to the moon?
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)