IN BRIEF REPORT DATED 4/5//2018 I MENTIONED IN COMMENTARY ON US LABOR DEPRATMENT WHEN RELEASED ITS APRIL HIRING AND UNEMOPLYMENT REPORT , I SAID THAT REPORTS MAY LACK SUFFICINT CREDIBILTY WHERE NOT TAKING FOR INSTANCE : THE NUMBERS OF THOSE WHO HAVE BEEN LEFT OUT OR WHO HAVE BEEN LOST THEIR DESIRE TO LOOK FOR JOBS, OR THE LOW VALUE OF WORK CONTRACTS, AS WELL AS MOST OF THESE CONTRACTS ARE TEMORARY
IN THE FIRST GRAPH, ALTHOUGH THE JOBLESS RATE HITS 3.9% THE LOWEST RATE SINCE 2000 BUT WHEN THE JOBLESS RATE HIT THESE LEVELS RIGHT BEFORE THE DOT COM BUBBLE BURST , THE LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE WAS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN ITS TODAY ,
THE SECOND GRAPH UNDERSCORE THAT POINT ,WHEREAS, DESPITE THE NUMBER OF JOB OPENINGS EXCEEDED 6MIL SINCE 2009, IN TURN QUITS EXCEEDED 3MIL IN THE SAME PERIOD
THE THIRD GRAPH SHOWS, WAGES INCREASED BY 2.6% OVER THE PAST YEAR, NOT MUCH FASTER THAN INFLATION, WHEN WE COMPARE THIS PERIOD WITH THE 1990S AND EARLY 2000S THE LAST TIME JOB MARKET LOOKED LIKE THIS , WAGES ROSE AT AN ANNUAL RATE OF A ROUND 4% , THROUGH THIS COMPARSION IT IS CLEAR TO US THAT WAGES GROWTH IS JUST NOT PICKING UP AS ECONOMISTS WOULD HAVE ECXPECTED , IT IS STILL FAR AWAY ITS PERVIOUS RATE
I DO THINK ALL OF THESE FACTORS MAY INTERPRET WHY INFALTION IS INCREASING AT A SLOW PACE, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A POSSIBLE RECESSION
ACCORDING TO GRAPH 4 A SURVEY WAS CONDUCTED ON MAY 2018, THE REUSLT WAS 2020 BEING THE MOST LIKELY YEAR OF RECESSION
BE CAUTION , THERE IS A SO CALLED "NOMINAL ECONOMY" MANY GOVERNMENTS USE IT TO SHOW IMPROVEMENT IN ITS ECONOMIC INDICATORS
